He plays fast and loose with the rules to deliver Team Oligarchy what they want, but Harris can't get to 8 true keys, therefore, according to him, she loses.
I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. I don't find her charismatic in the least. Her voice is like fingernails on a blackboard and she just oozes insincerity with every word and nervous cackle. A true chameleon who changes her positions as the wind blows (and the donors insist), while exclaiming how her as-yet-undisclosed "values" haven't changed. Her ABC interview last week was sheer torture.
Bill Clinton and Barak Obama were charismatic. Absolute world class bullshitters, those two. And tough acts to follow.
My thoughts EXACTLY… The polls even confirm it! The MORE people see and hear Kamala, the LESS they like her, (much like Hillary in 2016!)… She has a vapidity that simply CANNOT be covered up… Obama was a master of hollow eloquence that would make journalists swoon, even though what Obama said was utterly meaningless…
I saw him speak during the 2008 Wisconsin primary. I think most of us gave him a pass for not being George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton. He filled an auditorium and got lots of applause, but it was almost all anti- Bush applause.
At an Inauguration watch party, I asked my old speech professor what she thought about his address, and she said, "C-minus on delivery because of his choppy cadence. He sounds like Bill Cosby trying to milk a joke."
That "choppy cadence" is straight out of the MLK fiery black preacher style guide. Every single Black Democrat and Black Leftist agitator follows this to the T, yet you'll notice that few if any Conservative Black politicians do.
Leftism has always been a triumph of style over substance. Feelings over facts. What better way to whip up an emotional response in an audience than a faux impassioned sermon imparting how they are victims of long past injustice and deserving of some entitlement?
lol. funny to read this take bc over at "black agenda dot com" one can get a real read of how 'Black Leftists" responded to Obama and how reporters see a Kamala Harris presidency.
What is this thing now that wives of Democrat American Presidents assume they should become President too? I mean, I don't need to remind anyone of Hillary. And then Michele Obama was very likely their preferred candidate who was going to be slotted in after Biden. But Biden kind of pre-empted that.
I’m not in recovery, rather rage at his perpetual presence in our politics. I didn’t fall for him for one second. Zero experience. What screams style over substance more than a background like his running for president?
Really amazing, actually. He still gets away with war in Syria and Libya. Once said better to go w/ HRC than Obama. at least you know what you're up against. lol. Was attacked w/ you're 'fascist' Obama 2010 midterm loss was yuge
PBO team knew about ISIL, and hoped it would overrun Assad/Syria (and Lebanon too). this is known bc John Kerry com w/"rebels" was leaked. Sam Power pushed arming them. PBO barged Libyan weapons to Syria ...good John McCain took photo of himself in N. Lebanon. Is it freedom if it's all contextualized under "Arab Spring"...? If one is against this madness -as is Tulsi Gabbard-- they label you a Russian spy! After Libya, Russia shored up Assad. lol see? it's the Russians that spoiled it all -bc it couldn't possibly be that their way of 'implementing" 'democracy' is corrupt! lol and if you stop the cabal exporting "democracy" in the Ukraine, then you're a russian too. lol
CNN interview w/Bash... no presidential command of the room. mediocre applicant for mid-level corporate job. Looked down a lot. Like a liar trying to remember next line. Halfway through, masked dropped. eyes showed signs of anxiety and fear. Major reveal --she fears her 'bluff' will be called. lol
And Tim Walz? like a supportive adult-child in a dysfunctional family unit. Criticisms from incumbent Veep's office -expects subordinates carry bags, signs of nepotism. Tim is like "the innocent one" and "the chosen one" combined. 'silly jazz hands' = comic relief.
Charisma and mask fall very quickly, shows when she's heckled(*). No wonder she won't risk a gaggle of press. Can't handle pressure. chicken. Prosecutor in court is one thing, rules of conduct. No sharp-elbowed press. She'd rather hide behind dopey Tim's silly boy routine.
(*) SOCIAL UNREST Michigan rally pro-Palestinian hecklers result in the mask slipping -Kamala attacks with emotional blackmail (dysfunctional, passive/aggressive) "you'll get Trump elected....I'm speaking here!" followed by ugly, rage face.
Pro-Palestinian protest are real and not going away. 9/6/24 US citizen protesting West Bank gunned down by IDF. Head shot from ~200yds.
Aysenur Ezgi Eygi, University of Washington graduate. Another "Rachel Corrie"?
A lot of people have analyzed and called her out for her body language, which is even more of a tell on her duplicity than what she says -- or avoids saying. "That's all I'm going to say."
Not only is she not charismatic, she is an abject moron. I'd place her IQ around 85 and that's being generous. I counted maybe 2 for her, she's not close to 8. But, Democrats have election fraud down to a science, so we'll see.
Her body language, movements, voice in many of the clips I’ve observed are very like my own after two or three margaritas. I believe the girl drinks too much.
She's an idiot. You'll NEVER see her doing podcasts, at Bitcoin conferences, etc. Trump/Vance have done over 30 interviews. She's done 10 min of one w friendly msm. It flopped.
correct. She is not charismatic, but a mediocre administrator, only. Also, she is not a 'cultural icon'. I heard the blue team sycophant media call her that, too.
I suppose charisma is in the eye of the beholder. I can objectively see it in Elvis. I think it's rather the opposite of ultra conformist. Like M.I.A. She has charisma. She is the Tamil Tiger daughter who grew up in London, befriended American musicians, and upstaged Madonna at the Superbowl. Her song 'Paper Planes' was featured prominently in the film 'Slumdog Millionaire."
The other night, I agreed with about half of Maher's 'new rules editorial' on 'being weird' (he did ultimately if half-assed, offer a defense of RFK, Jr., against his crazy blue team haters, although still calling him 'weird.' Better than nothing but not good enough. I don't want my party to be the party of MeanGirls calling others of a less conformist nature, 'weird.' Also, while he opined how great it was that a vote against Trump would almost certainly end his political life, (as a reason to vote for Kamala), he did not consider the same, even better---she's much younger, could be said for voting against Kamala. Bill is better than MSNBC, but only a little, politically. He hates the non-democratic and surveil-ing things other countries do, but does not care if it is the US. (see, Zuckerberg's admitted election interference, et., al.). Bill knows and he does not care--as long as it helps defeat Trump). and RFK, Jr. is 'weird' for not falling in line to support Kamala.
So...rather than charismatic, or cultural icon, how about: vacuous, chronically insincere, would-be identity politics queen? Ben (from the Bay)
I think Harris is extremely charismatic in the sense that Jon Lovitz' "Annoying Man" or Pauly Shore or George W. Bush is charismatic. Conversely Bill Clinton, a real-life Eddy Haskell if there ever was one, always made me want to grab a cane and haul his hall monitor ass off the stage. What. A. Smarmy. Bore.
Not this woman. She’s everything I hate about some people of my gender…. Manipulates, obfuscates, and causes a problem, then cries victim when someone calls her on it. Lies using sleight of vocabulary (I wasn’t the ‘border czar’, I was merely in charge of finding the root causes of the border rush. And you’re only saying this because I’m a woman). I cannot stand women like this.
She had no objection to being called "the Border Czar" during the period when she was routinely being called "the Border Czar". MSM running propaganda again.
And yet these same Leftist women who project themselves onto Kamala (and ignore her epic faults) will absolutely savage Tulsi Gabbard. Or Melania Trump. Both of whom display much more integrity, intellect, and poise than Kamala ever could.
No way- only pro choice women, no wait - now it’s pro abortion women who want her. Pro choice has been pushed out like Joe Biden. Harris campaign has a bus traveling through many swing cities with the banner “Reproductive Rights “ plastered all over it. That’s the focus, there’s no other official platform. The term reproductive rights is so none sensical as it really means abortion rights which is taking a life not producing life. Like everything else, what they call or name something on the left is the opposite of what it truly represents.
Yeah, Leslie is where so many of us were before we (if I may appropriate a term from the Left) "woke" up. But I fear Leslie's condition may be terminal.
Eager to finish your wonderful takes here later when i can fully focus on it but your general argument match my original take on his assessment. Either he has TDS blinders on or he’s not as smart as he thinks he is. I was impressed when he got Trump correct in 2016, but in his latest assessment he is totally ignoring so many key factors it’s almost ludicrous!
Always love your wonderful work here as well as your spunk and spirit!
Lichtman’s reading of his assessment smacks of Narcos de Mexico’s season 2 election storyline, where Felix gets a corrupt election worker to falsely show the cartel’s candidate in the lead, in order to demoralize the opposition voters so that they will give up and not vote.
Thank you. Demos these days routinely make arguments of the type "We wouldn't do it. But we would be right to do it". Stealing the election, teaching CRT, getting illegal aliens to vote ... It's like the old lawyer's joke: "My client doesn't have a dog. And my client's dog doesn't bite".
"She looks good on paper" ...I remember first reading about Kamala Harris in a glossy NYT write up, then WAPO then LAT. Initially, I had a positive response, similar to reading NYT puff-piece on Tim Kaine ('16 HRC's veep pick). Then I saw them in debates: Condescending Tim, cringe Kamala.
Kamala comes off like a sorority girl drunk off attention --running for president, says a female friend of mine. I contextualize the 'vibe' as a glib, smarmy career politician.
"they look good on paper" is no winning campaign slogan. No small wonder Kamala Harris campaign actively denies the past while promising the future. Like a mediocre physician failing to admit she's created more problems "treating the symptoms" rather than addressing the root cause for the infection. and like California, they’ll just keep promising to fix the problems they’ve created. And when it results in raising taxes on top of higher cost of living, but results are increased drug abuse, street crime, and homelessness, it sounds like quackery.
1. I looked at them all with pretty broad strokes yesterday and came to the same conclusion you just did.
2. Lichtman is no sage. No matter what, he broke his streak either in 2000 or 2016. He flips and flops between electoral win or popular vote (convenient) Our system is electoral. Period. It was never meant to be popular. So, he's already been wrong twice in a 16 year period.
3. Nate Silver says he's a joke. Nate Silver is a Democrat I trust to be honest. He may be wrong sometimes, but he's honest.
If Trump is to win, he has to win big (not necessarily a land slide but bigger than 2016 & 2020). If it is a squeaker, Harris will win with the DEM's ballot harvesting program. I think there is the possibility (remote) that Trump can expand the map of states in play including MN.
I do that a lot. I am not alone. You are a kindred spirit. There are three little dots to the right of our respective comment(s) which you can click and one of the options is "Edit."
That’s my hope. The dems are focusing on the Swing States, but all states, all PEOPLE, have been put thru the wringer during their 3 1/2+ years in control of OUR country. From vax MANDATES to painful economic squeezing(fuel, electricity, food INSURANCE) has ALL occurred on their watch. They think like Elites, with no care about what things cost them, and have no care or concern about the peons(We, the People)…AND IT SHOWS. “It’s the ECONOMY, Stupid.”
I was really bummed at first when I read a short blurb of his prediction and saw he was only wrong one other time. But Sasha’s assessment really cheered me up majorly and I needed that!
If answering honestly, imho there’s no way she gets more than 3-4 keys at most, and that’s being overly generous.
These 13 factors are like a horoscope and just as silly. Either voters matter and they do show solid prediction, and in that case Trump wins, or voters don’t matter, these are a joke, and 50% of readers will find the love of their life today and come into some money. 🤣
I think Nate is about as factual human as can exist. I knew him first on Daily Kos as "poblano," the prognosticating wunderkind. Then he made a television appearance (probably his first), and we were all like, "He's an aspie for sure!." That made my estimation of his objectivity and solid citizenship shoot up.
Even being “liberal” I only saw 5 keys for Harris. But I think we are all coming to terms with how right you are. The fix is in. Let’s put it this way; I’ll be as shocked as white folks were when OJ’s not guilty verdict was read if Trump gets in. God love the team for trying.
Jim, I mostly agree with you. But we cannot stop trying until it's really over. And things keep changing, and are unsettled, and all the public polls are rigged, and we haven't had the October surprise. Soldier on, everyone.
I think if you were to ask the non-paying-attention people, they’d say true to 8, 9, 10 and 11. These are objectively false to anyone who cares, but most people sadly don’t. There are also smart people I know who believe Kamala ‘earned’ the nomination. Again, evidence that people are stupid.
"Democracy is an empty bottle. It is only as good as what you poor into it." Yeah we have a lot of the population who is checked out and not paying attention.
Because we have a sick culture because we have too many weak men. We have too many Christian pasters avoiding confrontation with the culture. "Leave me alone" is not a winning strategy.
I don't disagree that's some of it. I think an even larger issue is that the mask has slipped, so to speak, and folks see that they are being lied to, by everyone, all the time.
Harris charismatic? I am fascinated by Sasha's expanded definition of charisma. Finger nails scraping a chalk board type of charisma? I supposed I could have a limited and shallow understanding of charisma. Maybe it is like how former US AG Edwin Mees described obscenity and porn "You know it when you see it."
Ummm. What about the elephant in the room which is that elections are rigged anyway. Metrics like these are only out there to create the illusion that elections are determined by the voters- they categorically are not. I write about this extensively in my own Substack.
I have been amused by the incessant flurry of "Harris Wins" polls. This is the Deep State attempting to create a froth of discouragement for MAGA voters. The most accurate poll of the past two decades has been Rasmussen and I don't believe his numbers has shown anything but a Trump win in the past six months. The Drudge headlines have been contrived for months. Drudge has been working overtime attempting to create a tidal wave of Harris sentiment. I have not, and do not, believe it is real. The Vice President's job approval numbers were even weaker than Joe's just four months ago. It defies human nature that she has become an electoral powerhouse in those 120 days.
How can we be certain of this? While nothing is ever 100% certain, the frantic attempt to create negative headlines about the Republican ticket is a leading indicator. The latest example is the AP's headline on Vance: "Vance Says School Shootings Are a Fact of Life" which was then forwarded by the Vice President.
The only way Republicans can lose is by reverting to their characteristic stupidity. Unfortunately, that is always a possibility. The Republicans' Pole Star is Dumb. What they should be saying is that
"Yes, we are going back!
We are going back to gas under two dollars.
Going back to a secure border.
Going back to the day when the American Vice President didn't raise bail for rioters and arsonists
Going back to funding the police
Going back to respecting people of faith
Going back to parents raising their children
Going back to the West Point Mission Statement of Duty, Honor, Country
"The latest example is the AP's headline on Vance: "Vance Says School Shootings Are a Fact of Life""
1. haven't looked but I'd make a large wager, the Majority to stories in Corporate Media are negative about Trump/Vance. YET The Race (it is said) Close.
2. In 2012 and 2016 I would read a story about Newt Gingrich (2012) Chris Christie (2016) saying something, Bad. I'd go watch the speech a (SHOCK!) the story was Not 100% accurate.
So now Trust BUT Verify is My motto in politics. I'm not saying The Lie....no that is what I'm saying.
To "feel demoralized by the polls", one must also believe that Biden is sharp as a tack, or that the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation. The polls are part and parcel of the media propaganda psyop, the intention of which is not to inform, but to demoralize. My prediction is that President Trump wins with 300-330 electoral college votes, the "polls" notwithstanding.
This election WILL be stolen by the establishment. There is ZERO chance they will permit a Trump win. This is a group that was willing to muck up his secret service protection enough to see him killed. They will stop at NOTHING.
They don’t always win. My glimmer of hope for a Trump win in spite of the challenges is that since Trump was saved when he should have died that his job is not done. There’s a reason he’s still in the game. We’ll know soon.
I still find some humor in this rigged game. A week ago Putin said he prefered Harris and last night I noticed Dick Cheney endorsed Kamala. That ought to really swing some votes. Now if she can only close the deal with David Duke.
If Kamala keeps getting endorsements like Dick Cheney there may be some hope after all for Trump. If I were running Trump's campaign I'd go nationwide letting people know about that endorsement.
Lichtman's comments are simply Nudge theory in action....preparing the gullible and the unsuspecting mind for accepting a stolen election, because, well because Lichtman already told you she would win.
The DNC wouldn't be doing this and all the other bs censoring and outright lieing like Rogan & Phil Eagles support Kamala if they thought it was going to be a landslide. They only need to keep the polls close to cover the steal.
Everything hangs on the Debate, most important TV event since Super Bowl whatever.
When it’s his turn to answer a debate question Trump should have a short answer(I know) & cede the rest of his time to Kamala saying “I’d be interested to know your thoughts on this Kamala”. She’d have to go off script & actually answer on her own.
I took the test and came up with a narrow Trump win (6 true, 7 false). I think Sasha (whom I very much respect) was showing a bit of bias. For example, by the letter of the law there is a 3rd party candidacy but realistically there isn't. In every election there are 3rd party candidates but I think the question is more like is there a mass movement Perot or John Anderson candidacy? I think in an honest election Trump wins but I don't see that possibility as very likely. The real question is how far will Democrats go to steal this election? I think they will go as far as it takes to steal it and they will use their control of the media and the Justice Department to make sure it sticks. I wish I was wrong but I see these people no different than the Bolsheviks, Nazis, Maoists, or any other group bent on taking over a state.
Of course, she is massively biased many former democrats outright hate their former party and everything they stand for and will never go back. She does highlight some major issues that democrats are having and need addressing but her views all democrats in the party are bad are a focus of the blinded hate post former democrats have today in general.
I don't think Sasha sees Democrats as bad. I think she's saying (and agree) that Democrats have lost sight of the big picture in their hatred of Trump. If you are OK with a party state similar to the Soviet Union then vote Democrat. I don't mean that to be about communism, I mean it to be about a one party state with no counter balance to their power. The two party state wasn't great but after watching California go one party I realize a two party state is somewhat of a check on power. We are going to lose our wonderful Bill of Rights if this direction continues. I'd vote for the devil over this group of zealot Democrats.
There is a Substack owned by Ruy Texiera called The Liberal Patriot. He makes the same points as Tulsi and RFK2 but for some reason thinks the Democrat Party can be fixed.
She has a right to think that way. You have to remember she strongly identified as a Democrat for decades and sees this Democratic Party as betraying her past support for them. Betrayal generates strong emotions.
Did I ever said she doesn't have the right to think like that? She admitted she was a centrist voting democrat who probably wasn't happy with the party for 30 years now in retrospect. I put her as a JFK democrat the conservative/centrist wing of the party that died during Clinton 1990s.
No - Sasha is awake now & has the ability to rationally see through the bs. I don’t believe she’s exchanged her blinders for rose colored glasses though. I agree that she like many others hate what the democrat party has become & the danger they represent to the American people. Want to keep your free speech ? Elect Trump.
She exchanged one set of blinders for another she refuses to see any democrats agenda in any neutral light. The funny thing is this ex-democrat hate has been repeated over and over see Cadence Owens, Tulsi , Vernon Jones, Cotham. They switch all their stances in a blink and they refuse to see their former party in any good terms or even neutral terms.
Do you have any idea why Tulsi switched parties? I think not. You want to know what your party used t be? Listen to RFKJ's speech why he joined Trump. That's why I was a Democrat when I was younger.
Your party is NOTHING like this today. The sooner you wake up to this the sooner we will be a great nation again. Our country needs you.
Lets see it started when Fox offered her a multimillion-dollar contract and 2022 she proceeded to flip every stance she stood for in congress what a "shock"
I will never vote for a party who main goal is generation power Trump can win 2024 i dont care but GOP cannot have uncontestable majority,
Kamala cannot win this election. She can only create the illusion of winning with elaborate tactics of deception and propaganda along with multifaceted election chicanery which is no win at all. It’s an installation. The magicians of the democrat party may have a few more tricks up their sleeve but the show is getting old. Their compulsive lying reeks of desperation. We’re moving on. Since the failed assassination attempt the Trump re-alignment is coming into focus as more disillusioned democrats abandon a failing party (now Alan Dershowitz who I hope will soon endorse Donald Trump) and work for an American renewal. Democrats are very aware of this and are frightened as they should be. I say let them be afraid instead of us because fear leads to failure. There’s an unstoppable movement developing and I’m ignoring polls as nothing at this point is trustworthy.
His liberal friends stabbed him in the back when he dared challenged them on their move from left to far left, woke left, ridiculous, communist, socialist left. He's not the first common sense liberal to leave the deranged party.
Go ahead and make a case for fake tranny male perverts hanging in the teenager girls locker room watching them undress & shower while they jack off. You people are sick.
"She is charismatic"
I'm going to have to disagree with you on this one. I don't find her charismatic in the least. Her voice is like fingernails on a blackboard and she just oozes insincerity with every word and nervous cackle. A true chameleon who changes her positions as the wind blows (and the donors insist), while exclaiming how her as-yet-undisclosed "values" haven't changed. Her ABC interview last week was sheer torture.
Bill Clinton and Barak Obama were charismatic. Absolute world class bullshitters, those two. And tough acts to follow.
My thoughts EXACTLY… The polls even confirm it! The MORE people see and hear Kamala, the LESS they like her, (much like Hillary in 2016!)… She has a vapidity that simply CANNOT be covered up… Obama was a master of hollow eloquence that would make journalists swoon, even though what Obama said was utterly meaningless…
"Obama was a master of hollow eloquence that would make journalists swoon, even though what Obama said was utterly meaningless…"
This is the absolute best you can say for the "president" that was elected because of his skin color.
Hollow Eloquence. Perfect description. Amazing that so many fell for it, then and now. He is responsible for the last decade of disaster.
I saw him speak during the 2008 Wisconsin primary. I think most of us gave him a pass for not being George W. Bush or Hillary Clinton. He filled an auditorium and got lots of applause, but it was almost all anti- Bush applause.
At an Inauguration watch party, I asked my old speech professor what she thought about his address, and she said, "C-minus on delivery because of his choppy cadence. He sounds like Bill Cosby trying to milk a joke."
That "choppy cadence" is straight out of the MLK fiery black preacher style guide. Every single Black Democrat and Black Leftist agitator follows this to the T, yet you'll notice that few if any Conservative Black politicians do.
Leftism has always been a triumph of style over substance. Feelings over facts. What better way to whip up an emotional response in an audience than a faux impassioned sermon imparting how they are victims of long past injustice and deserving of some entitlement?
Rhetoric...the salesman's primary tool
lol. funny to read this take bc over at "black agenda dot com" one can get a real read of how 'Black Leftists" responded to Obama and how reporters see a Kamala Harris presidency.
It is all about scam tactics. To the naive.
. . . and who can forget the born and bred suburbs of Chicago Hillary Clinton's Black Accent "I don't feel no ways tired" - 2007 Selma, AL.
for the newbies: alive and living on youtube
Harsh grade! lol. He did have a wave of voters who truly thought Obama was going to prosecute the Bush Cabal. lol.
Surprise! The Bush Cabal endorses smarmy Kamala!
"El Salvador Option" Dick Cheney :heart: Killer Kamala
Yeah, Beth, Shrub Bush was so horrible that pretty much any Dem would have come across as "the messiah."
And to balance out the hollow eloquence, we got the angry, entitled and high decibel "wife". Shallow is the new black.
What is this thing now that wives of Democrat American Presidents assume they should become President too? I mean, I don't need to remind anyone of Hillary. And then Michele Obama was very likely their preferred candidate who was going to be slotted in after Biden. But Biden kind of pre-empted that.
Thanks, Joe! I wasn't ready for Aunt Esther 2.0.
You too, Alice? There are so many of us in Obama Recovery...
I’m not in recovery, rather rage at his perpetual presence in our politics. I didn’t fall for him for one second. Zero experience. What screams style over substance more than a background like his running for president?
You would find the Susan Daniels' book interesting: "The Rubbish Hauler's Wife vs. Barack Obama".
He is very likely a Communist, for starters. And an all-around disreputable human being.
Really amazing, actually. He still gets away with war in Syria and Libya. Once said better to go w/ HRC than Obama. at least you know what you're up against. lol. Was attacked w/ you're 'fascist' Obama 2010 midterm loss was yuge
PBO team knew about ISIL, and hoped it would overrun Assad/Syria (and Lebanon too). this is known bc John Kerry com w/"rebels" was leaked. Sam Power pushed arming them. PBO barged Libyan weapons to Syria ...good John McCain took photo of himself in N. Lebanon. Is it freedom if it's all contextualized under "Arab Spring"...? If one is against this madness -as is Tulsi Gabbard-- they label you a Russian spy! After Libya, Russia shored up Assad. lol see? it's the Russians that spoiled it all -bc it couldn't possibly be that their way of 'implementing" 'democracy' is corrupt! lol and if you stop the cabal exporting "democracy" in the Ukraine, then you're a russian too. lol
It certainly was not for his morals. Or his intellect. Obama was/is a great shyster. In every way.
CNN interview w/Bash... no presidential command of the room. mediocre applicant for mid-level corporate job. Looked down a lot. Like a liar trying to remember next line. Halfway through, masked dropped. eyes showed signs of anxiety and fear. Major reveal --she fears her 'bluff' will be called. lol
And Tim Walz? like a supportive adult-child in a dysfunctional family unit. Criticisms from incumbent Veep's office -expects subordinates carry bags, signs of nepotism. Tim is like "the innocent one" and "the chosen one" combined. 'silly jazz hands' = comic relief.
Charisma and mask fall very quickly, shows when she's heckled(*). No wonder she won't risk a gaggle of press. Can't handle pressure. chicken. Prosecutor in court is one thing, rules of conduct. No sharp-elbowed press. She'd rather hide behind dopey Tim's silly boy routine.
(*) SOCIAL UNREST Michigan rally pro-Palestinian hecklers result in the mask slipping -Kamala attacks with emotional blackmail (dysfunctional, passive/aggressive) "you'll get Trump elected....I'm speaking here!" followed by ugly, rage face.
Pro-Palestinian protest are real and not going away. 9/6/24 US citizen protesting West Bank gunned down by IDF. Head shot from ~200yds.
Aysenur Ezgi Eygi, University of Washington graduate. Another "Rachel Corrie"?
A lot of people have analyzed and called her out for her body language, which is even more of a tell on her duplicity than what she says -- or avoids saying. "That's all I'm going to say."
Not only is she not charismatic, she is an abject moron. I'd place her IQ around 85 and that's being generous. I counted maybe 2 for her, she's not close to 8. But, Democrats have election fraud down to a science, so we'll see.
Her body language, movements, voice in many of the clips I’ve observed are very like my own after two or three margaritas. I believe the girl drinks too much.
She's an idiot. You'll NEVER see her doing podcasts, at Bitcoin conferences, etc. Trump/Vance have done over 30 interviews. She's done 10 min of one w friendly msm. It flopped.
I find it amazing that the daughter of two academics, supposedly, is so intellectually ungifted. Though she certainly is.
Regression to the mean, like Chelsea Clinton. You get a midwit with no fire in the belly.
like
correct. She is not charismatic, but a mediocre administrator, only. Also, she is not a 'cultural icon'. I heard the blue team sycophant media call her that, too.
"Cultural icon," my butt. I'm holding out for Vermin Supreme before I label any candidate an icon.
I suppose charisma is in the eye of the beholder. I can objectively see it in Elvis. I think it's rather the opposite of ultra conformist. Like M.I.A. She has charisma. She is the Tamil Tiger daughter who grew up in London, befriended American musicians, and upstaged Madonna at the Superbowl. Her song 'Paper Planes' was featured prominently in the film 'Slumdog Millionaire."
The other night, I agreed with about half of Maher's 'new rules editorial' on 'being weird' (he did ultimately if half-assed, offer a defense of RFK, Jr., against his crazy blue team haters, although still calling him 'weird.' Better than nothing but not good enough. I don't want my party to be the party of MeanGirls calling others of a less conformist nature, 'weird.' Also, while he opined how great it was that a vote against Trump would almost certainly end his political life, (as a reason to vote for Kamala), he did not consider the same, even better---she's much younger, could be said for voting against Kamala. Bill is better than MSNBC, but only a little, politically. He hates the non-democratic and surveil-ing things other countries do, but does not care if it is the US. (see, Zuckerberg's admitted election interference, et., al.). Bill knows and he does not care--as long as it helps defeat Trump). and RFK, Jr. is 'weird' for not falling in line to support Kamala.
So...rather than charismatic, or cultural icon, how about: vacuous, chronically insincere, would-be identity politics queen? Ben (from the Bay)
Is that a new item on the Taco Bell menu? I'll have to try it....
Vermin Supreme is a perennial candidate for the presidency, but maybe Taco Bell will also run with this.
I think Harris is extremely charismatic in the sense that Jon Lovitz' "Annoying Man" or Pauly Shore or George W. Bush is charismatic. Conversely Bill Clinton, a real-life Eddy Haskell if there ever was one, always made me want to grab a cane and haul his hall monitor ass off the stage. What. A. Smarmy. Bore.
Bill Clinton as Eddie Haskell? I like that!
She is a hollywood product. ergo, not real in any way
Some/ several of these attributes are highly [partisan] subjective (charisma being one of them) so the results can be swayed either Harris or DJT.
The image that comes to my mind with Harris is a hyena.
Yeah, charisma and Kamala--two words that do not belong together. That cackle gets old, fast.
Brad- my thoughts exactly!!!
I'm kinda wondering if they are trying to train the vocal fry out of her voice. That's the affectation that makes her hard to listen to, imo.
Women see themselves in her.
Not this woman. She’s everything I hate about some people of my gender…. Manipulates, obfuscates, and causes a problem, then cries victim when someone calls her on it. Lies using sleight of vocabulary (I wasn’t the ‘border czar’, I was merely in charge of finding the root causes of the border rush. And you’re only saying this because I’m a woman). I cannot stand women like this.
She had no objection to being called "the Border Czar" during the period when she was routinely being called "the Border Czar". MSM running propaganda again.
Exactly, that’s why I call it sleight of vocabulary… she’s pretending like she’s talking about the same issue but she’s not.
"The time has come to unburden ourselves from what we have left undone. Or done poorly."
Good on Valerie, TWC had that coming....
And yet these same Leftist women who project themselves onto Kamala (and ignore her epic faults) will absolutely savage Tulsi Gabbard. Or Melania Trump. Both of whom display much more integrity, intellect, and poise than Kamala ever could.
I am not a feminist at all. Never have been. And yes, I am a woman.
I am proud to have seen through that ideological tactic when I was still a girl.
like- -alot
No way- only pro choice women, no wait - now it’s pro abortion women who want her. Pro choice has been pushed out like Joe Biden. Harris campaign has a bus traveling through many swing cities with the banner “Reproductive Rights “ plastered all over it. That’s the focus, there’s no other official platform. The term reproductive rights is so none sensical as it really means abortion rights which is taking a life not producing life. Like everything else, what they call or name something on the left is the opposite of what it truly represents.
To paraphrase George Wallace: Nine-month abortions today, nine-month abortions tomorrow, nine-month abortions forever!
Was he in Canada? Abortions there are unlimited. To the moment of birth. And Troodo pushes them like candy.
Are they offering free abortions and vasectomies on the “Reproductive Rights” campaign bus?
ARRGGGHHH! No way!!!!
Not conservative, pro life women. We see her as a pawn in the hands of the evil establishment.
Not me. If I saw myself in Kamala Harris, I would consider my life to have been utterly wasted. And worse.
Not really.
Pronouns like her have turned me into a misogynist.
Wake up Leslie. Your points are what normies call “stupid.” Be a grown-up.
Yeah, Leslie is where so many of us were before we (if I may appropriate a term from the Left) "woke" up. But I fear Leslie's condition may be terminal.
Eager to finish your wonderful takes here later when i can fully focus on it but your general argument match my original take on his assessment. Either he has TDS blinders on or he’s not as smart as he thinks he is. I was impressed when he got Trump correct in 2016, but in his latest assessment he is totally ignoring so many key factors it’s almost ludicrous!
Always love your wonderful work here as well as your spunk and spirit!
Lichtman’s reading of his assessment smacks of Narcos de Mexico’s season 2 election storyline, where Felix gets a corrupt election worker to falsely show the cartel’s candidate in the lead, in order to demoralize the opposition voters so that they will give up and not vote.
Won't matter. The last ~45 days or so is nothing but 'fortifying election' stuff in real time.
In their minds, stealing the election is the same thing as saving democracy.
Liking 500 times. Sad.
Thank you. Demos these days routinely make arguments of the type "We wouldn't do it. But we would be right to do it". Stealing the election, teaching CRT, getting illegal aliens to vote ... It's like the old lawyer's joke: "My client doesn't have a dog. And my client's dog doesn't bite".
TWC, for once, I fear that you are correct. But at least you are admitting in advance that the election is going to be rigged.
Both, for $500?
I hope you’re right and Trump wins. I don’t think Harris is charismatic at all, but I live in California and have watched her for years.
"She looks good on paper" ...I remember first reading about Kamala Harris in a glossy NYT write up, then WAPO then LAT. Initially, I had a positive response, similar to reading NYT puff-piece on Tim Kaine ('16 HRC's veep pick). Then I saw them in debates: Condescending Tim, cringe Kamala.
Kamala comes off like a sorority girl drunk off attention --running for president, says a female friend of mine. I contextualize the 'vibe' as a glib, smarmy career politician.
"they look good on paper" is no winning campaign slogan. No small wonder Kamala Harris campaign actively denies the past while promising the future. Like a mediocre physician failing to admit she's created more problems "treating the symptoms" rather than addressing the root cause for the infection. and like California, they’ll just keep promising to fix the problems they’ve created. And when it results in raising taxes on top of higher cost of living, but results are increased drug abuse, street crime, and homelessness, it sounds like quackery.
3 things:
1. I looked at them all with pretty broad strokes yesterday and came to the same conclusion you just did.
2. Lichtman is no sage. No matter what, he broke his streak either in 2000 or 2016. He flips and flops between electoral win or popular vote (convenient) Our system is electoral. Period. It was never meant to be popular. So, he's already been wrong twice in a 16 year period.
3. Nate Silver says he's a joke. Nate Silver is a Democrat I trust to be honest. He may be wrong sometimes, but he's honest.
If Trump is to win, he has to win big (not necessarily a land slide but bigger than 2016 & 2020). If it is a squeaker, Harris will win with the DEM's ballot harvesting program. I think there is the possibility (remote) that Trump can expand the map of states in play including MN.
💯. I'd rather Trump supporters think it's really, really close. Otherwise, they want show up.
Omg. Won't.
I do that a lot. I am not alone. You are a kindred spirit. There are three little dots to the right of our respective comment(s) which you can click and one of the options is "Edit."
They don't come up on my android phone and I can't sit down long enough to get out my laptop. I wish they did, though!
That’s my hope. The dems are focusing on the Swing States, but all states, all PEOPLE, have been put thru the wringer during their 3 1/2+ years in control of OUR country. From vax MANDATES to painful economic squeezing(fuel, electricity, food INSURANCE) has ALL occurred on their watch. They think like Elites, with no care about what things cost them, and have no care or concern about the peons(We, the People)…AND IT SHOWS. “It’s the ECONOMY, Stupid.”
I was really bummed at first when I read a short blurb of his prediction and saw he was only wrong one other time. But Sasha’s assessment really cheered me up majorly and I needed that!
If answering honestly, imho there’s no way she gets more than 3-4 keys at most, and that’s being overly generous.
These 13 factors are like a horoscope and just as silly. Either voters matter and they do show solid prediction, and in that case Trump wins, or voters don’t matter, these are a joke, and 50% of readers will find the love of their life today and come into some money. 🤣
He also predicted that if Biden dropped out, they would lose.
I think Nate is about as factual human as can exist. I knew him first on Daily Kos as "poblano," the prognosticating wunderkind. Then he made a television appearance (probably his first), and we were all like, "He's an aspie for sure!." That made my estimation of his objectivity and solid citizenship shoot up.
Agreed.
Even being “liberal” I only saw 5 keys for Harris. But I think we are all coming to terms with how right you are. The fix is in. Let’s put it this way; I’ll be as shocked as white folks were when OJ’s not guilty verdict was read if Trump gets in. God love the team for trying.
Jim, I mostly agree with you. But we cannot stop trying until it's really over. And things keep changing, and are unsettled, and all the public polls are rigged, and we haven't had the October surprise. Soldier on, everyone.
Kamala is charismatic? I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
I think if you were to ask the non-paying-attention people, they’d say true to 8, 9, 10 and 11. These are objectively false to anyone who cares, but most people sadly don’t. There are also smart people I know who believe Kamala ‘earned’ the nomination. Again, evidence that people are stupid.
"Democracy is an empty bottle. It is only as good as what you poor into it." Yeah we have a lot of the population who is checked out and not paying attention.
And why is that, do you think?
The People grown fat, happy, and lazy with Capitalist success at wealth creation.
Because we have a sick culture because we have too many weak men. We have too many Christian pasters avoiding confrontation with the culture. "Leave me alone" is not a winning strategy.
I don't disagree that's some of it. I think an even larger issue is that the mask has slipped, so to speak, and folks see that they are being lied to, by everyone, all the time.
Harris charismatic? I am fascinated by Sasha's expanded definition of charisma. Finger nails scraping a chalk board type of charisma? I supposed I could have a limited and shallow understanding of charisma. Maybe it is like how former US AG Edwin Mees described obscenity and porn "You know it when you see it."
Here’s the Cackler’s Charisma:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Conservative/s/N6RETTTc6r
Talk about comment collision (collusion?). 😂
Ummm. What about the elephant in the room which is that elections are rigged anyway. Metrics like these are only out there to create the illusion that elections are determined by the voters- they categorically are not. I write about this extensively in my own Substack.
I think you need only click on my icon….. but here you go: https://substack.com/@janine5eb?r=b8el3&utm_medium=ios
suggestions: attach your substack address....so we can read more.
Dick Minnis removingthecataract.substack.com
Thanks, Dear Sasha, for keeping us well informed as well as hopeful.💙🙏🤓
I have been amused by the incessant flurry of "Harris Wins" polls. This is the Deep State attempting to create a froth of discouragement for MAGA voters. The most accurate poll of the past two decades has been Rasmussen and I don't believe his numbers has shown anything but a Trump win in the past six months. The Drudge headlines have been contrived for months. Drudge has been working overtime attempting to create a tidal wave of Harris sentiment. I have not, and do not, believe it is real. The Vice President's job approval numbers were even weaker than Joe's just four months ago. It defies human nature that she has become an electoral powerhouse in those 120 days.
How can we be certain of this? While nothing is ever 100% certain, the frantic attempt to create negative headlines about the Republican ticket is a leading indicator. The latest example is the AP's headline on Vance: "Vance Says School Shootings Are a Fact of Life" which was then forwarded by the Vice President.
The only way Republicans can lose is by reverting to their characteristic stupidity. Unfortunately, that is always a possibility. The Republicans' Pole Star is Dumb. What they should be saying is that
"Yes, we are going back!
We are going back to gas under two dollars.
Going back to a secure border.
Going back to the day when the American Vice President didn't raise bail for rioters and arsonists
Going back to funding the police
Going back to respecting people of faith
Going back to parents raising their children
Going back to the West Point Mission Statement of Duty, Honor, Country
How about “Going back to two genders?” “Going back to making preborn life safe in the womb?”
"The latest example is the AP's headline on Vance: "Vance Says School Shootings Are a Fact of Life""
1. haven't looked but I'd make a large wager, the Majority to stories in Corporate Media are negative about Trump/Vance. YET The Race (it is said) Close.
2. In 2012 and 2016 I would read a story about Newt Gingrich (2012) Chris Christie (2016) saying something, Bad. I'd go watch the speech a (SHOCK!) the story was Not 100% accurate.
So now Trust BUT Verify is My motto in politics. I'm not saying The Lie....no that is what I'm saying.
AP truncated the quote. Vance actually said he didn't like that and wanted more security.
"AP truncated the quote."
Its what corporate media does all the time.
1. We go back and forth
2. Never going to happen profit is not enough especially with more elaborate drilling
3. VPs are pointless
4. True
5. And go back to where religion dominated America like what Oklahoma wants?
6. Not going to happen
7. Good luck on that people put their partisan beliefs before any of that.
I have no idea of what Oklahoma wants. I would like a break from the Sisters of Perpetual Indulgence and invasion of services by such groups.
I think the woke has been self defeated just like all group crap fads they dont hold up and self destruct on their own.
When I see a 5'6" woman as part of a protective Secret Service detail for a 6'2" man I wonder that woke has been defeated.
The problem wasnt that but how a shooter got there in the first place
The shooter)s) got there because they were allowed there by the Secret Service. Period.
To "feel demoralized by the polls", one must also believe that Biden is sharp as a tack, or that the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation. The polls are part and parcel of the media propaganda psyop, the intention of which is not to inform, but to demoralize. My prediction is that President Trump wins with 300-330 electoral college votes, the "polls" notwithstanding.
This election WILL be stolen by the establishment. There is ZERO chance they will permit a Trump win. This is a group that was willing to muck up his secret service protection enough to see him killed. They will stop at NOTHING.
They don’t always win. My glimmer of hope for a Trump win in spite of the challenges is that since Trump was saved when he should have died that his job is not done. There’s a reason he’s still in the game. We’ll know soon.
Mike, don't be that negative... the system isn't locked up quite as tight as you seem to think... stay wary, but stay positive.
I still find some humor in this rigged game. A week ago Putin said he prefered Harris and last night I noticed Dick Cheney endorsed Kamala. That ought to really swing some votes. Now if she can only close the deal with David Duke.
Oh, DavidH! From your lips to God’s ears🤞
If Kamala keeps getting endorsements like Dick Cheney there may be some hope after all for Trump. If I were running Trump's campaign I'd go nationwide letting people know about that endorsement.
Thanks for the logical, reasonable breakdown. Lichtman has a severe case of TDS
Lichtman's comments are simply Nudge theory in action....preparing the gullible and the unsuspecting mind for accepting a stolen election, because, well because Lichtman already told you she would win.
The DNC wouldn't be doing this and all the other bs censoring and outright lieing like Rogan & Phil Eagles support Kamala if they thought it was going to be a landslide. They only need to keep the polls close to cover the steal.
Everything hangs on the Debate, most important TV event since Super Bowl whatever.
Dick Minnis removingthecataract.substack.com
When it’s his turn to answer a debate question Trump should have a short answer(I know) & cede the rest of his time to Kamala saying “I’d be interested to know your thoughts on this Kamala”. She’d have to go off script & actually answer on her own.
I took the test and came up with a narrow Trump win (6 true, 7 false). I think Sasha (whom I very much respect) was showing a bit of bias. For example, by the letter of the law there is a 3rd party candidacy but realistically there isn't. In every election there are 3rd party candidates but I think the question is more like is there a mass movement Perot or John Anderson candidacy? I think in an honest election Trump wins but I don't see that possibility as very likely. The real question is how far will Democrats go to steal this election? I think they will go as far as it takes to steal it and they will use their control of the media and the Justice Department to make sure it sticks. I wish I was wrong but I see these people no different than the Bolsheviks, Nazis, Maoists, or any other group bent on taking over a state.
Of course, she is massively biased many former democrats outright hate their former party and everything they stand for and will never go back. She does highlight some major issues that democrats are having and need addressing but her views all democrats in the party are bad are a focus of the blinded hate post former democrats have today in general.
I don't think Sasha sees Democrats as bad. I think she's saying (and agree) that Democrats have lost sight of the big picture in their hatred of Trump. If you are OK with a party state similar to the Soviet Union then vote Democrat. I don't mean that to be about communism, I mean it to be about a one party state with no counter balance to their power. The two party state wasn't great but after watching California go one party I realize a two party state is somewhat of a check on power. We are going to lose our wonderful Bill of Rights if this direction continues. I'd vote for the devil over this group of zealot Democrats.
There is a Substack owned by Ruy Texiera called The Liberal Patriot. He makes the same points as Tulsi and RFK2 but for some reason thinks the Democrat Party can be fixed.
Her posts says otherwise she outright admitted she wants GOP in control for a generation
She has a right to think that way. You have to remember she strongly identified as a Democrat for decades and sees this Democratic Party as betraying her past support for them. Betrayal generates strong emotions.
Did I ever said she doesn't have the right to think like that? She admitted she was a centrist voting democrat who probably wasn't happy with the party for 30 years now in retrospect. I put her as a JFK democrat the conservative/centrist wing of the party that died during Clinton 1990s.
No - Sasha is awake now & has the ability to rationally see through the bs. I don’t believe she’s exchanged her blinders for rose colored glasses though. I agree that she like many others hate what the democrat party has become & the danger they represent to the American people. Want to keep your free speech ? Elect Trump.
She exchanged one set of blinders for another she refuses to see any democrats agenda in any neutral light. The funny thing is this ex-democrat hate has been repeated over and over see Cadence Owens, Tulsi , Vernon Jones, Cotham. They switch all their stances in a blink and they refuse to see their former party in any good terms or even neutral terms.
Do you have any idea why Tulsi switched parties? I think not. You want to know what your party used t be? Listen to RFKJ's speech why he joined Trump. That's why I was a Democrat when I was younger.
Your party is NOTHING like this today. The sooner you wake up to this the sooner we will be a great nation again. Our country needs you.
Lets see it started when Fox offered her a multimillion-dollar contract and 2022 she proceeded to flip every stance she stood for in congress what a "shock"
I will never vote for a party who main goal is generation power Trump can win 2024 i dont care but GOP cannot have uncontestable majority,
Kamala cannot win this election. She can only create the illusion of winning with elaborate tactics of deception and propaganda along with multifaceted election chicanery which is no win at all. It’s an installation. The magicians of the democrat party may have a few more tricks up their sleeve but the show is getting old. Their compulsive lying reeks of desperation. We’re moving on. Since the failed assassination attempt the Trump re-alignment is coming into focus as more disillusioned democrats abandon a failing party (now Alan Dershowitz who I hope will soon endorse Donald Trump) and work for an American renewal. Democrats are very aware of this and are frightened as they should be. I say let them be afraid instead of us because fear leads to failure. There’s an unstoppable movement developing and I’m ignoring polls as nothing at this point is trustworthy.
Alan has been hating democrats for about 12 years now reluctantly voting for a few at the top.
His liberal friends stabbed him in the back when he dared challenged them on their move from left to far left, woke left, ridiculous, communist, socialist left. He's not the first common sense liberal to leave the deranged party.
Go ahead and make a case for fake tranny male perverts hanging in the teenager girls locker room watching them undress & shower while they jack off. You people are sick.
I dont trust people who outright admit they value Israeli over America.
You twist things to fit your narrative. He NEVER said that. NEVER! NEVER, dude
I challenge you to quote him saying he values israel OVER America. Try it!
You're on record. Show up or go away with your tail between your legs.
Actually he has said Democrats have to support Israeli no matter what and that was his primary reason why he left.
Oh, I see, he didn't say he values Israel more than America, like you said.
You are a class A POS. He freaking NEVER said he values Israel over America.
You're twisting more than a scumbag hanging & twisting from a dead tree.
Go away dude.....you're worse than bad news. You make me sick to my stomach