Think how much better off democrats be today if TRUMP had won in ‘20. The economy would have had four years of expansion and Pence would have been VP. Pence would not have been ‘24 candidate for president and it’s unlikely Vance would have been considered a viable candidate. Now we have four years as Trump Presidency and a likely eight years of President Vance.
It's rare and unlikely any party gets 12 consecutive years in the WH. In 2028 there will be a large resistance to Republicans. If Democrats can run a strong candidate (right now I cannot identify that person) then JD's chances are slim.
Democrats challenge is to accept the far left, woke wing is not popular, and they must redefine themselves just as Trump did with the R party by replacing RINO's with MAGA. Until they abandon the AOC/woke factor, their road to the WH will be very difficult.
The GOP got (12) in 1980 which was a similar public uprising against the political class in DC. Bush Sr was pretty uninspiring or it might have continued longer. Lets see what Trump can do in the next 4 years. If he really delivers, it will be easy for JD Vance to take the next four years as he will be seen as an extension of the incumbent.
I am republican and am so happy Trump won. However to your comment about 12 years in 80. The Bush family is as corrupt as the Clintons and Obamas. They all colluded on 911, wars etc. they were left unchecked and that was bad. I love Trump however I’m worried about Peter Theil being part of the donation base and JHV. His middle name is Howard really. And Peter being Vance’s mentor. He’s a bad man. He’s a billionaire play both sides. He’s big into AI and digital passports and currency. Just exactly what we don’t want. We have a long road ahead with the indictments and how badly they want to take Trump out. Some say they’ll be able to get Trump out then Vance will be Pres and he will eliminate RFKJr and the rest of them that were so excited are part of the team. He’s the one to watch. Possibly not be trusted. Sadly. With that I believe we have won the first step in making good change with hope.
The 12 year observation of Reagan-Bush was not based on Bush's dark background. The vast majority of us who voted for Bush 41 were unaware of his dark background. The comment was correct - we wanted 8 more years of Reaganesque economy and national pride. Bush failed miserably, so we got Clinton and all the bad things that went with it. You are Monday Morning Quarterbacking, which is not true prophetical wisdom, but only a knowledge of past events.
I have doubts that Democrats can redefine their party (in enough time) because they are the least introspective bunch. They never leave their bubble.
Btw, I wonder where Carville is today. He's that guy that could have been warning them, especially since he lives in the south, that the cultural insanity of the Dems would destroy them. Where are the sane Dems, besides the likes of Doug Schoen?
You think logically but that's not how power mongers think though I have to give it to Bob Iger of Disney. He got the wind of covid global spread becoming much more serious than initially thought, went into an early retirement, dropped all that mess on Bob Chapek and then returned as a savior when it was over.
So in Iger model, Democrats should have left Trump to wrestle with the pandemic and all the economical challenges that would come from it (if he mishandled them like Biden) and then, in 2024, swoop in as saviors. Instead, they hammered the message that Trump was killing people and that if a Democrat had been in the office there would have been no pandemic on US soil. Scared people rolled the dice and voted for Biden and buyer's remorse arrived quickly. Not only more people died but by summer 2021, he permanently sullied his record with the messy Afganistan pullout. It wa sall downhill from there.
In 2024, you'd think they had learned the Iger lesson and would have let this election cycle go to the Republicans to wrestle with inflation, high prices, 2 major wars spreading, record high illegal immigration, etc. So that by 2028, Americans would have forgiven them for covering up for Biden and begged them to come back and save them. Instead, they wasted one billion dollars on astroturfing their candidate because they wanted to win oh so very much.
Power and greed motivated Iger too but he was smart to know that sometimes you have to reign it in. When going gets tough, pull out, let someone else take all the blame, return as the savior. They unironically gave that opportunity to Trump.
The Donald has a nice flock of offspring too, yuh know. I'm leaning towards DJT Jr. to come up in the ranks whilst Lil Baron runs the family business with the rest of the family and us, civilians, that will reimagine and develop America 2.0! And the "Trump-ettes" women in the family will nurture the future generations of America's forgotten children. Lead by no other than Mrs. Melannia Trump herself because that makes reasonable sense.
It likely would have been a relentless, conflict-filled REPEAT of 2016. He needed the space, learned wisdom and auto-correction capacity and time (in my view) to refine and restructure himself and his methodologies. He IS a bit older and wiser now.
Trump's acquired a deeper spiritual center (again, my view) that is well-aware of how he's been spared a premature demise by the bullets of assassins. I see Trump NOW, as having an even broader, more passionate life purpose that utterly transcends "politics."
He is a more formidable presence now, who recognizes he CAN allow himself to be part of a real Team Effort (I mean, just look at the wholesome, brilliant, powerful people surrounding him TODAY) rather than giving into his narcissism, which I believe had formerly demanded he carry this CHARGE all on his own. He's been humbled, but not broken. He is a better Man today, due to this enforced hiatus~ and he's come back more venerable than ever before.
Besides, when you're waging war (particularly on Evil), there's ALWAYS more strength and safety in numbers! AMEN.
Hard to predict; things morph quickly now, in the 4th Turning. The globalists will not stop their quest to have a one world government; a techno-autocracy. Pence is clearly with them, not us, and Vance was reportedly a member of Yale’s Skull & Bones club in his college days. Not good.
I respectfully, deny and relationship with the Boomer's. Yes, I am meet the definition. I reside at the tail end of the definition. It's a terrible generation of downright brainwshed idiots. I am not one. Please understand that labels are just labels.
Not all Boomers are Woke Idiots. I woke up in 2016, precipitated by the lockout of Sanders supporters at the DNC convention. I started listening to Patriot Radio on Sirius. It took me a long time to embrace being a Republican, mostly because people like the Bushes, Romney, McCain, Cheney, and their ilk make me ill. But when they stole 2020 from Trump, and he said, “No, we aren’t building a Patriot Party; we are taking over the Republican Party, I was happy to trade Trumplican for Republican when McDaniels was ousted from the RNC and Watley and Trump hit the ground running to remake the RNC. It is not the lily livered, war hawky, exclusive, gracious to lose Republican Party of my dad’s generation (Silent). I late bloomed, going to law school in my early 40’s, so I have associated with Gen X professionally for the past 25 years. I married a cusp Gen Xer 34 years ago and that probably saved me from being a divorced, single cat lady.
I read most of Howe’s tome but it got to be a slog and boring. It was frustrating to have to figure out the last 27 years on my own. That said, I think this turning will resolve before 2030. I think between 2026 and 2028. I also think the Dem’s bench is sparse for the future. Pelosi and her cohorts have held onto power too long and have not mentored leaders. The Squad is not prepared to lead coalitions because they are too extreme. They lost opportunities to mentor people who could have led them out of their morass. Instead, they kept power for themselves and the Party lost its way. Many have joined us on the MAGA/MAHA side. I think we will see a long stretch of conservative leadership, and for that, I am very happy.
I began my awakening in the aftermath of the 1987 stock market crash. Like many others, I truly woke up after September 11th.
Fortunately, I emerged from a state of untainted purity; I was apolitical and had no interest in politics whatsoever.
As a red-blooded American man, my interests were driven by wealth accumulation from a young age and later by understanding the financial markets.
Learning the complete history of financial markets by default exposes one to the chessboard of geopolitics and all that implies.
With that basis of understanding, politicians and political parties have no place in my reservoir of respect or reverence.
In its stead, the tenets of the Constitution and the Rule of Law guided my moral compass growing up and still do to this day.
While I am grateful for Trump's victory, his eternal optimism may lead him to believe he can indefinitely postpone (kick the can down the road) addressing important decisions surrounding America's insolvency, intractable debt, and abandonment from her Constitution and Rule of Law.
Be that as it may, that he won with a landslide victory gives us half a chance of surviving what's to come. Godspeed, America.
I hope you are right Meri! I woke up after Obama got in (but years before my lefty friends used to call me their "token Republican" for my basic common sense/fiscally conservative views!) Obama did NOT unify as advertised, and chose to divide the races, and emphasize his Black DNA and virtually deny his white mother and grandparents who raised him- I just saw it as more identity politics- which is a losers game that has led us to the race to be the biggest victim!
LOL!! You can't deny your membership to a generational group. Your birth year defines it. Today Boomers are seen in a negative light because Boomers were the demographic bulge in the economy and whereas we were very beneficial for the economy in the 1950s through the 1990s with all our consumption (encouraged by then-new TV commercials) now we are in the non-productive years of early (or late) retirement and are taking from, not giving, to the economy. Seems the youngsters resent that. Too bad. We all spent our lives working at office or factory jobs (no remote work from home for us) and giving our taxes to make everyone else's lives better, our elders (who did not contribute much to SS and Medicare) and our children. Now it is our turn to have a pleasant retirement. All generations get their turn.
Amen Brian! Born in 1960 so at the tail end. As a woman, I think the feminist movement (to which I don't subscribe unless we're talking about equal opportunity -- not outcomes) now looks like a bunch of really angry old women. Yuck.
Oh for sure, feminism of their variety has to stop. They are all shrews. And the young women wailing and crying and shaving their heads (!) bc Trump won----can we just agree they're mental cases?
Sure you can. Generational groups are only defined by year of birth, but that can be extremely superficial when compared to mindset. I’m a tail end Boomer, and we have almost nothing in common with the bulk of the Boomers. Case in point, both Barack and Michelle Obama are Boomers by their birth years, but who ever thinks of them as being Boomers? No one.
The most accurate description of Boomers I’ve ever heard was that if you were eligible to be drafted for the Vietnam War, you’re a Boomer. If you weren’t, you’re not. Having lived through that era, this is spot on. Tail end Boomers had a much different life experience than draft eligible Boomers, and hence, a much different mindset. In fact, I only had to sign up for the Selective Service due to a Jimmy Carter decree in the late ‘70’s.
I agree with that. I'm one of nine children; 1957, 1958, 1960 (me), 1962, 1963, 1964, 1968, 1970 and 1975. It's an interesting experiment. Most of us are conservative but that doesn't mean all were for Trump. The ones who weren't didn't live in swing states like the rest of us.
We are not our astrological signs for crissake. I was raised Southern Baptist, but it didn’t “take.” I am the cuckoo of my family, and largely apolitical. My homeland is in survival mode now, and Trumps destiny seems to be to lasso it back in for the people.
According to the Strauss-Howe divisions, Gen X started in 1960 (I'm one, too)
Their divisions are based on awareness of certain pivotal events rather than demographics, combined with the basic observation that people pass through stages of life roughly every twenty years so a generation's span of birth years is usually around that length. They define the Boom Generation as basically too young to have any possible memory of the end of WWII (1943) to too young to have any possible memory of JFK's assassination (1960)
LOL- I hear you Kat! I'm at tail end as well, but find many of my cohort fit the brainwashed idiot category only too well. Not sure why some of us woke up and smelled the coffee!
There are a multitude of unknown and unsung Gray Champions out here, offering unique skills, wisdom and talents to future generations. Herd mentality vs. critical free thinking exists in this population as well. Maybe throw Thomas Sowell and Victor Davis Hansen into that mix. We are here. Holding the line with you.
I've read the Fourth Turning. It's great but quite a slog. People might want to watch some interviews with Neil Howe on youtube if they don't want to read the book. I also just finished Generations by the same author, about American history using the same theory. It's so good I bought it to use for reference after borrowing from the library. It was written in 1992 and makes some predictions, many of which have occurred. Easier to grasp than the Fourth Turning imo.
I also couldn't slog my way through the book, so I bought the Cliff notes. It was streamlined and made sense. The big take away was that a fourth turning brings something we who are alive have never seen or experienced. It is completely new.
I’ve also read it. In my experience the 1st half of book was easier read and enjoyed the most. The 2nd half of book is where it slogged a bit. That said, I do recommend the read. Generational theory challenges the conventional thinking that time and events are pure linear, that most all of us were taught in school. Anyone with interest in Western history will benefit from the read.
I read The Fourth Turning when it came out in the late 90’s. It was fascinating.
A couple of things stood out to me. Strauss and Howe wrote that the Boomers were a destructive generation, and they weren’t yet done with inflicting damage (as of the late 90’s). As a Boomer, I didn’t like the characterization but couldn’t disagree. How accurate that prediction turned out to be!
In the late 90’s their prediction that Americans would lose faith in their institutions seemed far-fetched. And yet it’s turned out that Strauss and Howe were right.
After The Fourth Turning, I read the previous book, Generations, written in 1991. At the beginning of each chapter, they listed notable members of the generation discussed. I remember that it struck me as odd that Donald Trump was on the list of notable members of the Boomer generation. At that time, Trump was just a New York rich guy. Why would he be on that list? When he was elected President, I thought of that Strauss and Howe list from 1991. Seems they were on to something.
Strauss’ Generations book made such an impact on Al Gore (said it was most stimulating book on American history he had ever read) that Gore bought and delivered copies to every member of Congress. Strauss and Gore were also Harvard classmates.
as a tail end Boomer I totally agree! Boomers were (and the stupid ones still are) a destructive lot! i had to really step out of myself to see that. They love(d) to hate America and do what they can do ruin anything "establishment", throwing the baby out w/ the bathwater as they do!
I snagged this book when it was on sale, but I haven't read it yet. Maybe I need to shift it to the top of the pile.
I love the connection between GenX (of which I am also a member) and the Lost Generation after WWI. Because YES, we got screwed over. Some beginning in childhood, when the married moms started listening to the siren song of the feminists that insisted that women without careers were worthless, turning them into latchkey kids. (I was lucky to have Greatest Gen parents who had seen the mess their peers made of parenting and didn't do that to me.)
We grew up under the threat of nuclear annihilation. Every stage of life we reached had been left a shambles by the Boomers by the time we got there. And because we were a 'bust' generation, no one gave a damn about how all of it affected us. If this election is 'the revenge of GenX'...oh hell YEAH.
Celia, I read a funny on FB about Gen X. Gen X is so exhausted because we had to replace our 8-tracks with cassettes, then replace those with cd's, now we have to pay to stream music!!! :)
Celia, if you are to read a book on generational theory my recommendation would be the 1997 publication The Fourth Turning an American Prophecy by William Strauss & Neil Howe. The subscript on this book is: What the cycles of history tell us about America’s next rendezvous with destiny
Some historians call this theory pseudoscience and kookery. I am not one of them. I see and largely believe the patterns laid out in the book over Western history.
I’m Gen X too. I think Matt Taibbi’s recent quote captures our generation fairly well (and also ties us to our past) when he said:
“Motherfucker I’m an American! That shit does not work on me.”
Gen X are Nomad archetypes under generational theory. Nomads are broadly described as abandoned and alienated children who later as adults strive to slow down, simplify and shore up their social environment.
Here are other major public figure ‘Nomads’ from USA/England history (credit to Strauss’ book for the past ones):
Francis Drake (single voyage circumnavigation of the world)
Queen Elizabeth I (most famous for being English ruler to repel the Spanish Armada intent on reimposing Catholisism)
Nathaniel Bacon (led armed rebellion against British in Virginia)
Mary Dyer (a Quaker famously hanged by Puritans in Boston)
George Washington
Mercy Warren (woman poet who attacked British infringing on colonial Massachusetts)
Ulysses Grant
Louisa May Alcott (author, Little Women, abolitionist and feminist)
Harry Truman
Dorothy Parker (famous early 20th century caustic wit)
"Nomads are broadly described as abandoned and alienated children who later as adults strive to slow down, simplify and shore up their social environment."
I read and enjoyed most of the Howe and Strauss books many moons ago, thinking 9/11 must have been the beginning of the 4th turning, with much commentary after the 2007 crash from Howe & Strauss saying it was the economic crash of 2007 that was the beginning – which I now get. I especially enjoyed the GENX book -Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail – the 13th generation from the Revolution. It just made sense!
I was very disappointed with the most recent book you mentioned by Howe and agree with your reasonings that Howe was very influenced by the MSM. Strauss must have balanced him with a more moderate world view.
One problem I have is the range of dates for the generations because shouldn’t they at least cover the same number of years in the groupings? 18/18/18 or 15/15/15. For example, just like the census records saying the boomers are from 1946-1964 (18 years) but Gen-X is 1965-1980 (15 years), looking at the birth population but not even looking at the population graph which shows a BIG Drop beginning in 1961 – beginning of the birth control pill – makes sense. So, Howe and Straus accommodate for that issue, with the boomlet starting in 1943 (graph shows it) but the 13 Generation is about 20 years! (1961-1981). That is too long!
The reason we group a bunch of people who have absolutely nothing in common, except for the world they were born in, should reflect the world they are born in. During the 20th century, and now, the 21st century, every decade is so very different. I think it makes more sense to group generations the way Sting sang about it, “Born in the 50s.” Born in the 60s, Born in the 70s, etc. I was born in the 1960s, and my world as kid growing up in the 1970s and coming of age in the 1980s was not the same as someone born in the 1950s, as kids in the 1950s and coming of age in the 1970s –or vice versa, born in the 1970s, etc. and I think I have more common memories of the world we grew up with my friend who was born in 1970 v. someone born in 1950. Obviously, there are the “cuspers” – say 2 years before and after each decade, but it seems more accurate to me to place the generations based on decade v. a specific split within that decade.
I think the first book is called Generations, but I never read that one, b/c I was too busy reading Everything You Want to Know About Pregnancy, the first years, etc.
Seems to me that there is a confluence of events that make this 'fourth turning' much more than that. When you combine it with the development of artificial super intelligence and another Great (spiritual) Awakening, the approach to some sort of 'singularity' seems near.
Good comments, Sasha. I think that boomers, having rejected in large numbers, anything remotely resembling Christian theism, began worshipping at the alter of Rousseau who essentially turned each person into an unaccountable deity, answerable only to themselves. New gods were born who necessarily resent anyone or anything outside of themselves for the simple reason that they presented a barrier to the expression of their imperial will or feelings. That’s a heresy in their minds.
Thus, the die was cast for woketopia tyranny where everyone is a god and where anything goes except calling into question the premise that ‘anything goes.’ Has the Old Testament says, ‘Everyone did what was right in their own eyes.’
Those who refuse to pretend that each person is a god, (in many instances, because they worship a transcendent God) are therefore liable to excommunication if not worse.
In Woketopia non-polytheists will be rooted out and punished severely by the latest version of the Grand Inquisitor.
Anyone with a curious mind is often attracted to the prospect of glimpsing into the future despite their age.
In-depth historical analyses can provide unique and comprehensive insights into such.
Though it may not repeat as it were, history often rhymes in recognizable patterns if one cares to study it sufficiently.
Additionally, there is the exercise of unpacking the history influenced by the victors, contrasting it with a more objective and critical analysis of events that may not be immediately evident.
Interpreting standard and alternative history can be challenging and is often best left to those with strong and convincing arguments.
The Fourth Turning offers a logical and compelling explanation for the changing tides of generational experiences. In doing so, the hope is that we can better prepare for what may lay ahead and how possibly to avoid mistakes made by previous generations within their cyclical journeys.
When categorizing groups, the assigned characteristics are broad generalizations aimed at understanding the cyclical nature of evolving generations.
As I am on the younger end of the Baby Boomer spectrum, 1959, many of the peers I associate with are like me, Gray Champions.
Trump has a significant following among Boomers, many of whom may be considered Gray Champions. As a large group, they do not conform to the general traits alluded to for their respective category.
As far as I have learned to date, the broadest group most likely to become susceptible to cults and fanaticism is women.
If one were to research the topic of cults specifically, I am sure they will find ample evidence of such, along with plausible explanations as to why this might be the case.
In closing, life is an ongoing struggle regardless of which turning or generation one is a part of and living through.
The pace at which technology is rapidly outpacing our ability to process all the advancements will likely add further complications to a life cycle process that is difficult by default.
Be that as it may, that things will always get worse is also somewhat of a default. After all, we get the most meaning from life because of our susceptibility to suffering, which allows us to appreciate all that is good with life.
By nature, things always get worse over time. The scientific term for it, I believe, is entropy; eventually, we all die, which is about as bad as it gets, right?
Those of us with the cognitive reach to bear burdens of knowledge well beyond the realization and fears associated with mortality are likely to become more frustrated with the average person's understanding of the world in which we live.
Hopefully, with time, as one grows older, wisdom replaces the burden of frustration many of us wrestle with.
Yes, things will likely get worse before they get better. And, as the old saying goes, one has to go through hell before they get to heaven.
And that hell may well be the sublime experience we call life.
Enjoy and appreciate all its miraculous beauty and challenge to every extent possible.
Lotta words but well done. The Boomers, having been born too late to experience it, have by definition learned nothing from it. But they saw all these "straitjackets." And their parents failed to to other than spoil them rotten....
I'm not sure that many, much less a majority of Boomers were aware of all the "straitjackets," as you put it.
I'm not even sure exactly what you mean by that.
That said, I agree that the Silent Generation, having lived through the sparseness of the Great Depression, most certainly spoiled the dickens out of their Baby Boomer offspring.
Nope. Beethoven, mostly. I'm a nominal Boomer (1947), mildly what was once called Aspie, who thus was never going to be a Popular Kid no matter how hard I tried. Didn't give up trying for far too long, but the process -- or something -- seems to have given me a pretty good naked emperor if not BS detector. "Straitjackets" is an admittedly abstruse way of identifying any restrictions at all, mainly relative to sex and drugs. (Remember "never trust anyone over 30?")
(Brevity may be the soul of wit but can be a barrier to understanding. Sorry -- at least I could figure out what I was trying to say this time.)
"What I find most fascinating about the Fourth Turning is how right they were about the Baby Boomer generation embracing the cult-like fanaticism of today’s Left."
'57 for me. I wholly rejected "the left" (as it is usually understood in pop culture) in the early 2000s. Before, I was a Democrat and read Paul Krugman in seeking technical support for my political positions. Krugman mentioned Milton Friedman and I thought "why not look at it?" I read Capitalism and Freedom and that was that, so to speak, although studies in other fields and other authors continued (Hayek, etc...) and further contributed to my understanding of reality. Thanks, Paul K!
I don't know anything about cyclic social theories such as "Fourth Turnings" and so have no opinion on it. I have former HS classmates (baby boomers) whom I would describe as blind idealogues. They cannot be reasoned with, and I do not try. More than two decades of experience has taught me that "Leftists" almost never argue in good faith. I don't know how to deprogram leftists. Some just wake up, for whatever reason--I suppose that is what happened to me. ¯\_ツ_/¯
It may be that a measure of curiosity, intelligence, and base amount of education are necessary to become conscious of the Borg. (And maybe a teaspoon of luck!) I find stalwart leftists, even when educated and highly intelligent, are not authentically curious. They have too much self-confidence, I suppose. The reputation of educated and intelligent leftists as smug, arrogant, and condescending is well-deserved.
Cyclical history theories have been around a long time (maybe forever): Sima Qian {100BC}, Ibn Khaldon {1400}, Spengler {1915}, just to mention a few proponents of the various variants.
I think cyclical histories theory are “true” or helpful in the same way as Astrology, Greek mythology, or Joseph Campbell’s Archetypes are, in that they can teach us something basic about ourselves and our environment. Scientifically factual? No way, but they do tell us about the way the world works. Are they worth considering, definitely. Too bad the Strauss & Howe, and the Williams & Drew books aren’t easier reads - but I don’t think Cliffs Notes can do them Justice. Anything that makes you think outside your box is good, except maybe CRT / BLM / ESG / DEI.
Excellent recommendation! I read the first and it was excellent (read it around the year 2000). It was right on track over the past 25 years and more. I have the new book on Audible and haven't got through it. It does not say much new, but Howe writes from the perspective of being right in the middle of the 4th Turning as opposed to looking at it from afar when he wrote the first book. The Jan 6 freakout by Howe is overwrought. Jan 6 was a protest turned riot. It was never an insurrection, even if a few ringleaders tried to make it the second coming of the Storming of the Tullieries Palace of the French Revolution (the needless climbing of the walls when the stairs were available). From what we have learned, especially from Tucker Carlson's research, and what Howe would not have known, is this riot was coordinated by Nancy Pelosi, the FBI and leadership of the Capitol Police. It was a simple protest until the FBI undercover agents in the crowd whipped up a frenzy and got them to charge (and climb the walls). It is also likely some of the windows were broken by the FBI agents, all to create an event that could be politicized against Trump. Because the Biden admin has controlled the narrative on this event the past four years, we will not hear the truth (suppressed at online MSM sources and by Google) until the new Trump DOJ launches an investigation
Think how much better off democrats be today if TRUMP had won in ‘20. The economy would have had four years of expansion and Pence would have been VP. Pence would not have been ‘24 candidate for president and it’s unlikely Vance would have been considered a viable candidate. Now we have four years as Trump Presidency and a likely eight years of President Vance.
It's rare and unlikely any party gets 12 consecutive years in the WH. In 2028 there will be a large resistance to Republicans. If Democrats can run a strong candidate (right now I cannot identify that person) then JD's chances are slim.
Democrats challenge is to accept the far left, woke wing is not popular, and they must redefine themselves just as Trump did with the R party by replacing RINO's with MAGA. Until they abandon the AOC/woke factor, their road to the WH will be very difficult.
The GOP got (12) in 1980 which was a similar public uprising against the political class in DC. Bush Sr was pretty uninspiring or it might have continued longer. Lets see what Trump can do in the next 4 years. If he really delivers, it will be easy for JD Vance to take the next four years as he will be seen as an extension of the incumbent.
Hear ya but if not for "read my lips" and Mr Perot, a 16 year run was likely. Not that the GOP of the time was a particularly desirable prospect.
I am republican and am so happy Trump won. However to your comment about 12 years in 80. The Bush family is as corrupt as the Clintons and Obamas. They all colluded on 911, wars etc. they were left unchecked and that was bad. I love Trump however I’m worried about Peter Theil being part of the donation base and JHV. His middle name is Howard really. And Peter being Vance’s mentor. He’s a bad man. He’s a billionaire play both sides. He’s big into AI and digital passports and currency. Just exactly what we don’t want. We have a long road ahead with the indictments and how badly they want to take Trump out. Some say they’ll be able to get Trump out then Vance will be Pres and he will eliminate RFKJr and the rest of them that were so excited are part of the team. He’s the one to watch. Possibly not be trusted. Sadly. With that I believe we have won the first step in making good change with hope.
The 12 year observation of Reagan-Bush was not based on Bush's dark background. The vast majority of us who voted for Bush 41 were unaware of his dark background. The comment was correct - we wanted 8 more years of Reaganesque economy and national pride. Bush failed miserably, so we got Clinton and all the bad things that went with it. You are Monday Morning Quarterbacking, which is not true prophetical wisdom, but only a knowledge of past events.
Reread my post. I am far from Monday Morning Q'bing. I did not say 12 years is impossible or unprecedented....I said it's RARE.
I also said if Democrats cannot redefine their party as Trump did the Republicans, their path will be difficult.
It's an opinion I will not state a 3rd time, my friend.
I have doubts that Democrats can redefine their party (in enough time) because they are the least introspective bunch. They never leave their bubble.
Btw, I wonder where Carville is today. He's that guy that could have been warning them, especially since he lives in the south, that the cultural insanity of the Dems would destroy them. Where are the sane Dems, besides the likes of Doug Schoen?
Thanks for the book recommendation Sasha. This all sounds very interesting.
I think the timing of Trump coming in exactly at this point is perfect!
We can only pray… 🤞🏼
You think logically but that's not how power mongers think though I have to give it to Bob Iger of Disney. He got the wind of covid global spread becoming much more serious than initially thought, went into an early retirement, dropped all that mess on Bob Chapek and then returned as a savior when it was over.
So in Iger model, Democrats should have left Trump to wrestle with the pandemic and all the economical challenges that would come from it (if he mishandled them like Biden) and then, in 2024, swoop in as saviors. Instead, they hammered the message that Trump was killing people and that if a Democrat had been in the office there would have been no pandemic on US soil. Scared people rolled the dice and voted for Biden and buyer's remorse arrived quickly. Not only more people died but by summer 2021, he permanently sullied his record with the messy Afganistan pullout. It wa sall downhill from there.
In 2024, you'd think they had learned the Iger lesson and would have let this election cycle go to the Republicans to wrestle with inflation, high prices, 2 major wars spreading, record high illegal immigration, etc. So that by 2028, Americans would have forgiven them for covering up for Biden and begged them to come back and save them. Instead, they wasted one billion dollars on astroturfing their candidate because they wanted to win oh so very much.
You all forget. Democrats suffer from TDS so any logical, rational, libgtem thinking goes right ou the window
not all Democrats cause 2 joined Team Trump (RFK Jr, Gabard) and obviously some voted for Trump in this cycle, but decision makers for the party do.
You are right I painted with a broad brush. Many democrats but not all. I'm really happy RFK is on board.
Well said. Interesting comparison.
Power & greed are what motivates them. Not governing in the best interest of the people.
Power and greed motivated Iger too but he was smart to know that sometimes you have to reign it in. When going gets tough, pull out, let someone else take all the blame, return as the savior. They unironically gave that opportunity to Trump.
The Donald has a nice flock of offspring too, yuh know. I'm leaning towards DJT Jr. to come up in the ranks whilst Lil Baron runs the family business with the rest of the family and us, civilians, that will reimagine and develop America 2.0! And the "Trump-ettes" women in the family will nurture the future generations of America's forgotten children. Lead by no other than Mrs. Melannia Trump herself because that makes reasonable sense.
It likely would have been a relentless, conflict-filled REPEAT of 2016. He needed the space, learned wisdom and auto-correction capacity and time (in my view) to refine and restructure himself and his methodologies. He IS a bit older and wiser now.
Trump's acquired a deeper spiritual center (again, my view) that is well-aware of how he's been spared a premature demise by the bullets of assassins. I see Trump NOW, as having an even broader, more passionate life purpose that utterly transcends "politics."
He is a more formidable presence now, who recognizes he CAN allow himself to be part of a real Team Effort (I mean, just look at the wholesome, brilliant, powerful people surrounding him TODAY) rather than giving into his narcissism, which I believe had formerly demanded he carry this CHARGE all on his own. He's been humbled, but not broken. He is a better Man today, due to this enforced hiatus~ and he's come back more venerable than ever before.
Besides, when you're waging war (particularly on Evil), there's ALWAYS more strength and safety in numbers! AMEN.
Hard to predict; things morph quickly now, in the 4th Turning. The globalists will not stop their quest to have a one world government; a techno-autocracy. Pence is clearly with them, not us, and Vance was reportedly a member of Yale’s Skull & Bones club in his college days. Not good.
I respectfully, deny and relationship with the Boomer's. Yes, I am meet the definition. I reside at the tail end of the definition. It's a terrible generation of downright brainwshed idiots. I am not one. Please understand that labels are just labels.
Not all Boomers are Woke Idiots. I woke up in 2016, precipitated by the lockout of Sanders supporters at the DNC convention. I started listening to Patriot Radio on Sirius. It took me a long time to embrace being a Republican, mostly because people like the Bushes, Romney, McCain, Cheney, and their ilk make me ill. But when they stole 2020 from Trump, and he said, “No, we aren’t building a Patriot Party; we are taking over the Republican Party, I was happy to trade Trumplican for Republican when McDaniels was ousted from the RNC and Watley and Trump hit the ground running to remake the RNC. It is not the lily livered, war hawky, exclusive, gracious to lose Republican Party of my dad’s generation (Silent). I late bloomed, going to law school in my early 40’s, so I have associated with Gen X professionally for the past 25 years. I married a cusp Gen Xer 34 years ago and that probably saved me from being a divorced, single cat lady.
I read most of Howe’s tome but it got to be a slog and boring. It was frustrating to have to figure out the last 27 years on my own. That said, I think this turning will resolve before 2030. I think between 2026 and 2028. I also think the Dem’s bench is sparse for the future. Pelosi and her cohorts have held onto power too long and have not mentored leaders. The Squad is not prepared to lead coalitions because they are too extreme. They lost opportunities to mentor people who could have led them out of their morass. Instead, they kept power for themselves and the Party lost its way. Many have joined us on the MAGA/MAHA side. I think we will see a long stretch of conservative leadership, and for that, I am very happy.
I began my awakening in the aftermath of the 1987 stock market crash. Like many others, I truly woke up after September 11th.
Fortunately, I emerged from a state of untainted purity; I was apolitical and had no interest in politics whatsoever.
As a red-blooded American man, my interests were driven by wealth accumulation from a young age and later by understanding the financial markets.
Learning the complete history of financial markets by default exposes one to the chessboard of geopolitics and all that implies.
With that basis of understanding, politicians and political parties have no place in my reservoir of respect or reverence.
In its stead, the tenets of the Constitution and the Rule of Law guided my moral compass growing up and still do to this day.
While I am grateful for Trump's victory, his eternal optimism may lead him to believe he can indefinitely postpone (kick the can down the road) addressing important decisions surrounding America's insolvency, intractable debt, and abandonment from her Constitution and Rule of Law.
Be that as it may, that he won with a landslide victory gives us half a chance of surviving what's to come. Godspeed, America.
I hope you are right Meri! I woke up after Obama got in (but years before my lefty friends used to call me their "token Republican" for my basic common sense/fiscally conservative views!) Obama did NOT unify as advertised, and chose to divide the races, and emphasize his Black DNA and virtually deny his white mother and grandparents who raised him- I just saw it as more identity politics- which is a losers game that has led us to the race to be the biggest victim!
Why did a vast majority of folks not see that Obama was the devil?
Great story, MeriBear. We live to fight another day!
LOL!! You can't deny your membership to a generational group. Your birth year defines it. Today Boomers are seen in a negative light because Boomers were the demographic bulge in the economy and whereas we were very beneficial for the economy in the 1950s through the 1990s with all our consumption (encouraged by then-new TV commercials) now we are in the non-productive years of early (or late) retirement and are taking from, not giving, to the economy. Seems the youngsters resent that. Too bad. We all spent our lives working at office or factory jobs (no remote work from home for us) and giving our taxes to make everyone else's lives better, our elders (who did not contribute much to SS and Medicare) and our children. Now it is our turn to have a pleasant retirement. All generations get their turn.
Amen Brian! Born in 1960 so at the tail end. As a woman, I think the feminist movement (to which I don't subscribe unless we're talking about equal opportunity -- not outcomes) now looks like a bunch of really angry old women. Yuck.
Oh for sure, feminism of their variety has to stop. They are all shrews. And the young women wailing and crying and shaving their heads (!) bc Trump won----can we just agree they're mental cases?
I am 1962 & can be called a Boomer due to that, but I don't fit it.
So true. Divorced cat ladies. Angry. Rabid. I know some.
Sure you can. Generational groups are only defined by year of birth, but that can be extremely superficial when compared to mindset. I’m a tail end Boomer, and we have almost nothing in common with the bulk of the Boomers. Case in point, both Barack and Michelle Obama are Boomers by their birth years, but who ever thinks of them as being Boomers? No one.
The most accurate description of Boomers I’ve ever heard was that if you were eligible to be drafted for the Vietnam War, you’re a Boomer. If you weren’t, you’re not. Having lived through that era, this is spot on. Tail end Boomers had a much different life experience than draft eligible Boomers, and hence, a much different mindset. In fact, I only had to sign up for the Selective Service due to a Jimmy Carter decree in the late ‘70’s.
I agree with that. I'm one of nine children; 1957, 1958, 1960 (me), 1962, 1963, 1964, 1968, 1970 and 1975. It's an interesting experiment. Most of us are conservative but that doesn't mean all were for Trump. The ones who weren't didn't live in swing states like the rest of us.
Many GOP want to end that they see that as social Marxism.
Don't worry, Donald Trump is your president, too, and will protect you whether you like it or not. You can thank all of us who voted for him anytime.
He wont protect me but you can think he will.
We are not our astrological signs for crissake. I was raised Southern Baptist, but it didn’t “take.” I am the cuckoo of my family, and largely apolitical. My homeland is in survival mode now, and Trumps destiny seems to be to lasso it back in for the people.
It would help if you understood and used some basic grammar. Say what you want about Boomers, but we learned and pretty much mastered the three R's.
I agree. I’m 1960 and so much more like generation x
According to the Strauss-Howe divisions, Gen X started in 1960 (I'm one, too)
Their divisions are based on awareness of certain pivotal events rather than demographics, combined with the basic observation that people pass through stages of life roughly every twenty years so a generation's span of birth years is usually around that length. They define the Boom Generation as basically too young to have any possible memory of the end of WWII (1943) to too young to have any possible memory of JFK's assassination (1960)
Me too. The label doesn't apply to me either.
We must stand tall now. God has our backs and has forever. I din’t believe ir understand till Nov 5th. He spoke loudly.
I walk with God every moment and have no fear. I am committed to this fight.
Thank you, Deb. I walk with you without fear. I have been feeling such peace that God gave us. Free will can only be given by God.
yep, tail-end boomers totally different. we were too young to participate in any of the campus protests or even join the hippie movement.
I know that I have been lumped in with a generation I feel like I don’t even understand. Fecking labels. Just don’t even with me!
LOL- I hear you Kat! I'm at tail end as well, but find many of my cohort fit the brainwashed idiot category only too well. Not sure why some of us woke up and smelled the coffee!
I knew I wasn’t racist in 2008. I voted against the racist
There are a multitude of unknown and unsung Gray Champions out here, offering unique skills, wisdom and talents to future generations. Herd mentality vs. critical free thinking exists in this population as well. Maybe throw Thomas Sowell and Victor Davis Hansen into that mix. We are here. Holding the line with you.
I've read the Fourth Turning. It's great but quite a slog. People might want to watch some interviews with Neil Howe on youtube if they don't want to read the book. I also just finished Generations by the same author, about American history using the same theory. It's so good I bought it to use for reference after borrowing from the library. It was written in 1992 and makes some predictions, many of which have occurred. Easier to grasp than the Fourth Turning imo.
I also couldn't slog my way through the book, so I bought the Cliff notes. It was streamlined and made sense. The big take away was that a fourth turning brings something we who are alive have never seen or experienced. It is completely new.
I’ve also read it. In my experience the 1st half of book was easier read and enjoyed the most. The 2nd half of book is where it slogged a bit. That said, I do recommend the read. Generational theory challenges the conventional thinking that time and events are pure linear, that most all of us were taught in school. Anyone with interest in Western history will benefit from the read.
Thanks Lynn. This sounds worthwhile!
Pretty academic. It is not written for easy reading
I agree. I was unable to stay with the book.
I read The Fourth Turning when it came out in the late 90’s. It was fascinating.
A couple of things stood out to me. Strauss and Howe wrote that the Boomers were a destructive generation, and they weren’t yet done with inflicting damage (as of the late 90’s). As a Boomer, I didn’t like the characterization but couldn’t disagree. How accurate that prediction turned out to be!
In the late 90’s their prediction that Americans would lose faith in their institutions seemed far-fetched. And yet it’s turned out that Strauss and Howe were right.
After The Fourth Turning, I read the previous book, Generations, written in 1991. At the beginning of each chapter, they listed notable members of the generation discussed. I remember that it struck me as odd that Donald Trump was on the list of notable members of the Boomer generation. At that time, Trump was just a New York rich guy. Why would he be on that list? When he was elected President, I thought of that Strauss and Howe list from 1991. Seems they were on to something.
Strauss’ Generations book made such an impact on Al Gore (said it was most stimulating book on American history he had ever read) that Gore bought and delivered copies to every member of Congress. Strauss and Gore were also Harvard classmates.
Newt Gingrich endorsed it too.
as a tail end Boomer I totally agree! Boomers were (and the stupid ones still are) a destructive lot! i had to really step out of myself to see that. They love(d) to hate America and do what they can do ruin anything "establishment", throwing the baby out w/ the bathwater as they do!
I snagged this book when it was on sale, but I haven't read it yet. Maybe I need to shift it to the top of the pile.
I love the connection between GenX (of which I am also a member) and the Lost Generation after WWI. Because YES, we got screwed over. Some beginning in childhood, when the married moms started listening to the siren song of the feminists that insisted that women without careers were worthless, turning them into latchkey kids. (I was lucky to have Greatest Gen parents who had seen the mess their peers made of parenting and didn't do that to me.)
We grew up under the threat of nuclear annihilation. Every stage of life we reached had been left a shambles by the Boomers by the time we got there. And because we were a 'bust' generation, no one gave a damn about how all of it affected us. If this election is 'the revenge of GenX'...oh hell YEAH.
Celia, I read a funny on FB about Gen X. Gen X is so exhausted because we had to replace our 8-tracks with cassettes, then replace those with cd's, now we have to pay to stream music!!! :)
Add LP's to the top of that list for Boomers.
Celia, if you are to read a book on generational theory my recommendation would be the 1997 publication The Fourth Turning an American Prophecy by William Strauss & Neil Howe. The subscript on this book is: What the cycles of history tell us about America’s next rendezvous with destiny
Some historians call this theory pseudoscience and kookery. I am not one of them. I see and largely believe the patterns laid out in the book over Western history.
Gen X here. We are such and awesome gen IMO 🤣
I’m Gen X too. I think Matt Taibbi’s recent quote captures our generation fairly well (and also ties us to our past) when he said:
“Motherfucker I’m an American! That shit does not work on me.”
Gen X are Nomad archetypes under generational theory. Nomads are broadly described as abandoned and alienated children who later as adults strive to slow down, simplify and shore up their social environment.
Here are other major public figure ‘Nomads’ from USA/England history (credit to Strauss’ book for the past ones):
Francis Drake (single voyage circumnavigation of the world)
Queen Elizabeth I (most famous for being English ruler to repel the Spanish Armada intent on reimposing Catholisism)
Nathaniel Bacon (led armed rebellion against British in Virginia)
Mary Dyer (a Quaker famously hanged by Puritans in Boston)
George Washington
Mercy Warren (woman poet who attacked British infringing on colonial Massachusetts)
Ulysses Grant
Louisa May Alcott (author, Little Women, abolitionist and feminist)
Harry Truman
Dorothy Parker (famous early 20th century caustic wit)
Michael Jordan
Elon Musk
Tupac Shakur
Julian Assange
"Nomads are broadly described as abandoned and alienated children who later as adults strive to slow down, simplify and shore up their social environment."
Sounds like me
Yes, and I think also a reason why certain cultural voices called our generation ‘latchkey kids’ 😉
I read and enjoyed most of the Howe and Strauss books many moons ago, thinking 9/11 must have been the beginning of the 4th turning, with much commentary after the 2007 crash from Howe & Strauss saying it was the economic crash of 2007 that was the beginning – which I now get. I especially enjoyed the GENX book -Abort, Retry, Ignore, Fail – the 13th generation from the Revolution. It just made sense!
I was very disappointed with the most recent book you mentioned by Howe and agree with your reasonings that Howe was very influenced by the MSM. Strauss must have balanced him with a more moderate world view.
One problem I have is the range of dates for the generations because shouldn’t they at least cover the same number of years in the groupings? 18/18/18 or 15/15/15. For example, just like the census records saying the boomers are from 1946-1964 (18 years) but Gen-X is 1965-1980 (15 years), looking at the birth population but not even looking at the population graph which shows a BIG Drop beginning in 1961 – beginning of the birth control pill – makes sense. So, Howe and Straus accommodate for that issue, with the boomlet starting in 1943 (graph shows it) but the 13 Generation is about 20 years! (1961-1981). That is too long!
The reason we group a bunch of people who have absolutely nothing in common, except for the world they were born in, should reflect the world they are born in. During the 20th century, and now, the 21st century, every decade is so very different. I think it makes more sense to group generations the way Sting sang about it, “Born in the 50s.” Born in the 60s, Born in the 70s, etc. I was born in the 1960s, and my world as kid growing up in the 1970s and coming of age in the 1980s was not the same as someone born in the 1950s, as kids in the 1950s and coming of age in the 1970s –or vice versa, born in the 1970s, etc. and I think I have more common memories of the world we grew up with my friend who was born in 1970 v. someone born in 1950. Obviously, there are the “cuspers” – say 2 years before and after each decade, but it seems more accurate to me to place the generations based on decade v. a specific split within that decade.
I think the first book is called Generations, but I never read that one, b/c I was too busy reading Everything You Want to Know About Pregnancy, the first years, etc.
Seems to me that there is a confluence of events that make this 'fourth turning' much more than that. When you combine it with the development of artificial super intelligence and another Great (spiritual) Awakening, the approach to some sort of 'singularity' seems near.
Good comments, Sasha. I think that boomers, having rejected in large numbers, anything remotely resembling Christian theism, began worshipping at the alter of Rousseau who essentially turned each person into an unaccountable deity, answerable only to themselves. New gods were born who necessarily resent anyone or anything outside of themselves for the simple reason that they presented a barrier to the expression of their imperial will or feelings. That’s a heresy in their minds.
Thus, the die was cast for woketopia tyranny where everyone is a god and where anything goes except calling into question the premise that ‘anything goes.’ Has the Old Testament says, ‘Everyone did what was right in their own eyes.’
Those who refuse to pretend that each person is a god, (in many instances, because they worship a transcendent God) are therefore liable to excommunication if not worse.
In Woketopia non-polytheists will be rooted out and punished severely by the latest version of the Grand Inquisitor.
Good summary!
Anyone with a curious mind is often attracted to the prospect of glimpsing into the future despite their age.
In-depth historical analyses can provide unique and comprehensive insights into such.
Though it may not repeat as it were, history often rhymes in recognizable patterns if one cares to study it sufficiently.
Additionally, there is the exercise of unpacking the history influenced by the victors, contrasting it with a more objective and critical analysis of events that may not be immediately evident.
Interpreting standard and alternative history can be challenging and is often best left to those with strong and convincing arguments.
The Fourth Turning offers a logical and compelling explanation for the changing tides of generational experiences. In doing so, the hope is that we can better prepare for what may lay ahead and how possibly to avoid mistakes made by previous generations within their cyclical journeys.
When categorizing groups, the assigned characteristics are broad generalizations aimed at understanding the cyclical nature of evolving generations.
As I am on the younger end of the Baby Boomer spectrum, 1959, many of the peers I associate with are like me, Gray Champions.
Trump has a significant following among Boomers, many of whom may be considered Gray Champions. As a large group, they do not conform to the general traits alluded to for their respective category.
As far as I have learned to date, the broadest group most likely to become susceptible to cults and fanaticism is women.
If one were to research the topic of cults specifically, I am sure they will find ample evidence of such, along with plausible explanations as to why this might be the case.
In closing, life is an ongoing struggle regardless of which turning or generation one is a part of and living through.
The pace at which technology is rapidly outpacing our ability to process all the advancements will likely add further complications to a life cycle process that is difficult by default.
Be that as it may, that things will always get worse is also somewhat of a default. After all, we get the most meaning from life because of our susceptibility to suffering, which allows us to appreciate all that is good with life.
By nature, things always get worse over time. The scientific term for it, I believe, is entropy; eventually, we all die, which is about as bad as it gets, right?
Those of us with the cognitive reach to bear burdens of knowledge well beyond the realization and fears associated with mortality are likely to become more frustrated with the average person's understanding of the world in which we live.
Hopefully, with time, as one grows older, wisdom replaces the burden of frustration many of us wrestle with.
Yes, things will likely get worse before they get better. And, as the old saying goes, one has to go through hell before they get to heaven.
And that hell may well be the sublime experience we call life.
Enjoy and appreciate all its miraculous beauty and challenge to every extent possible.
Lotta words but well done. The Boomers, having been born too late to experience it, have by definition learned nothing from it. But they saw all these "straitjackets." And their parents failed to to other than spoil them rotten....
Thanks, Casey Jones.
Are you a Dead-Head by chance? :)
I'm not sure that many, much less a majority of Boomers were aware of all the "straitjackets," as you put it.
I'm not even sure exactly what you mean by that.
That said, I agree that the Silent Generation, having lived through the sparseness of the Great Depression, most certainly spoiled the dickens out of their Baby Boomer offspring.
Nope. Beethoven, mostly. I'm a nominal Boomer (1947), mildly what was once called Aspie, who thus was never going to be a Popular Kid no matter how hard I tried. Didn't give up trying for far too long, but the process -- or something -- seems to have given me a pretty good naked emperor if not BS detector. "Straitjackets" is an admittedly abstruse way of identifying any restrictions at all, mainly relative to sex and drugs. (Remember "never trust anyone over 30?")
(Brevity may be the soul of wit but can be a barrier to understanding. Sorry -- at least I could figure out what I was trying to say this time.)
Ah, I see Gen-X will be abandoned in elderhood. That tracks.
I'm Gen X. So sad
Gex-X never had a real voice ignored by the Baby-Boomers and the new generation they will very much suffer.
Abandoned in childhood, abandoned by their children. Yup!
I am feeling this, for sure.
Love this overview on the book Sasha.
"What I find most fascinating about the Fourth Turning is how right they were about the Baby Boomer generation embracing the cult-like fanaticism of today’s Left."
'57 for me. I wholly rejected "the left" (as it is usually understood in pop culture) in the early 2000s. Before, I was a Democrat and read Paul Krugman in seeking technical support for my political positions. Krugman mentioned Milton Friedman and I thought "why not look at it?" I read Capitalism and Freedom and that was that, so to speak, although studies in other fields and other authors continued (Hayek, etc...) and further contributed to my understanding of reality. Thanks, Paul K!
I don't know anything about cyclic social theories such as "Fourth Turnings" and so have no opinion on it. I have former HS classmates (baby boomers) whom I would describe as blind idealogues. They cannot be reasoned with, and I do not try. More than two decades of experience has taught me that "Leftists" almost never argue in good faith. I don't know how to deprogram leftists. Some just wake up, for whatever reason--I suppose that is what happened to me. ¯\_ツ_/¯
It may be that a measure of curiosity, intelligence, and base amount of education are necessary to become conscious of the Borg. (And maybe a teaspoon of luck!) I find stalwart leftists, even when educated and highly intelligent, are not authentically curious. They have too much self-confidence, I suppose. The reputation of educated and intelligent leftists as smug, arrogant, and condescending is well-deserved.
Cyclical history theories have been around a long time (maybe forever): Sima Qian {100BC}, Ibn Khaldon {1400}, Spengler {1915}, just to mention a few proponents of the various variants.
I think cyclical histories theory are “true” or helpful in the same way as Astrology, Greek mythology, or Joseph Campbell’s Archetypes are, in that they can teach us something basic about ourselves and our environment. Scientifically factual? No way, but they do tell us about the way the world works. Are they worth considering, definitely. Too bad the Strauss & Howe, and the Williams & Drew books aren’t easier reads - but I don’t think Cliffs Notes can do them Justice. Anything that makes you think outside your box is good, except maybe CRT / BLM / ESG / DEI.
The cultism of the Boomers sounds about right.
Excellent recommendation! I read the first and it was excellent (read it around the year 2000). It was right on track over the past 25 years and more. I have the new book on Audible and haven't got through it. It does not say much new, but Howe writes from the perspective of being right in the middle of the 4th Turning as opposed to looking at it from afar when he wrote the first book. The Jan 6 freakout by Howe is overwrought. Jan 6 was a protest turned riot. It was never an insurrection, even if a few ringleaders tried to make it the second coming of the Storming of the Tullieries Palace of the French Revolution (the needless climbing of the walls when the stairs were available). From what we have learned, especially from Tucker Carlson's research, and what Howe would not have known, is this riot was coordinated by Nancy Pelosi, the FBI and leadership of the Capitol Police. It was a simple protest until the FBI undercover agents in the crowd whipped up a frenzy and got them to charge (and climb the walls). It is also likely some of the windows were broken by the FBI agents, all to create an event that could be politicized against Trump. Because the Biden admin has controlled the narrative on this event the past four years, we will not hear the truth (suppressed at online MSM sources and by Google) until the new Trump DOJ launches an investigation