I need to be careful here. After sleeping on it and after reading on Strauss and Howe, I understand some of the background to the excitement over their “generational theory.”
But I have to object, whether anyone/ everyone likes it, or doesn’t, and the reasons to object should be obvious.
Any, and I mean ANY time beliefs and assumptions direct the actions of humans, humans surrender their free will.
I should probably leave it at that, but whether those beliefs or assumptions stem from deeply-held religious conviction or from astute interpretation of scientific data, or from anything in between, allowing prediction to decide for us what will become of us all is a fundamental error.
On the one hand, if you wish to believe that the stars align and determine how we act and what will transpire, that’s your right; if you choose to allow religious faith to set your expectations for humanity and the future that’s okay too. If you are enthralled by prophecy, by Nostradamus, or by scientific theories of cyclic behavior, so be it.
But while Strauss and Howe put some theoetical effort behind it, just like all of the others, they go too far. And they scare the hell out of people. Why not? They’re selling something. The motives of profit, power, influence and recognition excuse everything.
Now that I’ve dissed everyone, I’ll tell you why. What EVERYONE does affects everyone else. Lord knows I won’t be alive to see all of that, I’m over seventy now and I’m feeling extremely mortal, at this point in time. But if you’re gonna try and tell me to “bend a knee” or kowtow to globalists or to prepare for battle, y’all aren’t going to like my response.
If I could make one single huge thing happen, I would flatten and destroy the human lust for power. I think that probably sounds better than a stake through the heart of every globalist and politician. Were we to eliminate everyone who’s flawed, not a human would be left standing.
But if I could express one huge caveat for all humans that would take hold and make a difference, it would be this:
Do not allow anyone’s predictions to determine what you will do.
"Do not allow anyone’s predictions to determine what you will do."
JFK articulated this sentiment in the speech that many believe got him killed:
"Let us examine our attitude toward peace itself. Too many of us think it is impossible. Too many think it unreal. But that is a dangerous, defeatist belief. It leads to the conclusion that war is inevitable—that mankind is doomed—that we are gripped by forces we cannot control. We need not accept that view. Our problems are manmade—therefore, they can be solved by man. And man can be as big as he wants. No problem of human destiny is beyond human beings. Man's reason and spirit have often solved the seemingly unsolvable—and we believe they can do it again."
I wrote a short substack essay with thoughts on war, linked below. JFK was a war veteran. Some called him a hero for his actions when his PT boat was sunk, but if not a hero he had a really bad day. Kennedy and most all WW2 vets, including Nikita Khrushchev, did not want more war. We've reached that point, 80 years after the last major war, where those remembering it are gone or at least too old to influence things, and hence are arrogantly irresponsible. This may be the cause of what is seen as the fourth turning. Also, though not immediately evident, it is true that war deaths have dropped significantly since the advent of nuclear weapons. Their is a saying I heard somewhere; "Against the foolishness of man the gods themselves contend in vain."
Defeatist thinking just can’t be allowed to sink the ship. It seems like many think the elitist corporatocracy grabbing power through the WEF “partnership” with the United Nations is the end of freedom, and that it can’t be stopped. I’m 100% certain that it can be. The question is whether it will be.
I often wonder about the theories on JFKs assassination, and have my own. I doubt this one expression was the issue behind JFK’s demise, rather, the USSR would not have acceded to the US blockade without a behind-the-scenes deal. I think his planned assassination, was that deal.
"I doubt this one expression was the issue behind JFK’s demise"
It was the culmination of his transformation from a 1950s Cold Warrior to realizing that one wrong move could end life on earth, as became clear in the Cuban Missile Crisis, and that the Russians were human beings who, like us, cared about their childrens future. It was the attempt to move toward rapprochement with the Russians and the ratcheting down of Cold War tensions that got him killed, because it would have meant the fascist forces in our own government couldn't have a permanent enemy and endless war and the gravy train that implies for the MIC.
"...just like all of the others, they go too far. And they scare the hell out of people. Why not? They’re selling something. The motives of profit, power, influence and recognition excuse everything."
THIS (and the ten minutes of commercials for every three minutes of actual content) is why I stopped listening to all conservative talk radio with the exception of Rush. This is also why I absoutely cannot stand Mark Levin.
You made a lot of good points and did not diss anyone because you wrote in a fair and non-accusatory manner. I am glad you had the courage to voice your rational view.
Ken, I held some of your views at the onset of finding the “generations” theory so I’ll match your goal to summarize into one wish. You wish to remove the lust for power (obv impossible) and that we not let anyone’s predictions determine what we do.
I think what you’re missing is these aren’t predictions, events have already happened and perhaps consider that Strauss and Howe aren’t “selling you” anything, they’re just pointing out these cycles in (maybe) a more interesting or palatable way than those before them.
For example Howe is currently hopeful that we’ll come out of this winter “fourth turning” stronger, whereas myself, normally a resilient optimist, am not so sure.
In short, I believe it’s doing them and the huge amount of research they have done a blatant disservice to relegate their work to the predictions section of the bookstore, or of your Rolodex of opinions.
Rolodex. Thanks, I don’t even get an Excel sheet? I don’t deny I’ve expressed an opinion, but then, so have you, and you are entitled to it. As I am to mine. You may not have really noticed, but there’s a lot of that being expressed.
Let’s look at what Sasha excerpted:
“Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse—or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.
We cannot stop the seasons of history, but we can prepare for them. Right now, in 1997, we have eight, ten, perhaps a dozen more years to get ready. Then events will begin to take choices out of our hands. Yes, winter is coming, but our path through that winter is up to us.”
That doesn’t sound to me like things that have happened. We are expected to buy into it. Research did not name it The Fourth Turning, the authors did. What if, just imagine with me for a moment, a “winter” is NOT coming, but we can sure as hell put one there? Whyyy, anyone can see it is!! Right?
You put me in the mind of Bible-beaters proclaiming the end of the world and the Second Coming. They’ve been proclaiming it throughout my longish life, and at any point in my life, had I argued with any of them I’d have certainly had my head up my ass. But we’re still waiting. Aren’t we?
So because of all of that certainty, Israel was carved out of the Middle East where there wasn’t one, because it had to be there for prophecy to be fulfilled. So will the prophecies be correct, or have we instead, made them possible?
My points are based on reality as I know it. As I’ve said, you are free to disagree. But you know, they are indeed selling books.
Gotta go, time to stick your name and substack into my archaic cardboard Rolodex. Have a happy.
Brief thoughts - 1. You claim “doesn’t sound like things that have happened” yet I read through Sasha’s excerpt and don’t see one event listed.
I had friends lose houses in the banking - short sale - whatever collapse of 2006-2008, and the trajectory of their lives were shifted. Those events didn’t affect you (possibly) - being in a different generation and season life - ie, retired or ready to retire.
My point is I think you’re projecting, rather than receiving.
You are correct in that I am not receiving. I don’t buy into predictions, or hype, or fear-mongering. I try to gather all of the information I can, decide what out of that is probably true, and then I have to work to avoid reaching my own predictive conclusions through probabilities, generated by all of that. I usually do not succeed, and reach them anyway.
This may shock you, but I am not saying those predictions are wrong and/or entirely without merit. I attempted to issue a caveat toward allowing said predictions to rule one’s actions. When people do that, they act in ways that affect everybody else, and the next thing you know, shit happens that was predicted. I don’t think that’s a good thing. I think we should be thinking for ourselves, exercising free will, and determining appropriate outcomes by those actions.
Projecting, I’m not sure how that applies, but you’ll probably tell me. Reading that will be easier than trying to figure it out.
By the way, I meant to do a disservice to those who make huge predictions. Master of my fate? No way. Defensive of my ability to affect my fate in positive ways versus the opposite, absolutely.
That, as you know, is not up to me. I’ve always wondered just how far forgiveness extends. I don’t do well on a daily basis. My thoughts are not in line with agendas of any kind, and it is a willful sort of thing. So I’m inclined to say, I don’t expect to be that fortunate.
There are more mysteries to life than my feeble imagination can handle.
Dearest Ken, it's really very simple. If you believe that Jesus sacrifice on the cross was for all who have sinned, and we All have, and that God raised Him up on the 3rd day. You're half way there. God sent His Son because He knew we couldn't be perfect because our sin nature, caused by Adam and Eve not believing God and their disobedience, if any were to be saved, He would have to provide the sacrifice, and He did. If you'll believe that His work on the cross completed the task and that you can't earn salvation with good works, you're there. When you screw up, confess your sin and ask for and recieve His forgiveness. I'm right behind you at 65, but I know where I'm gonna spend eternity. I hope and pray to see you there my friend. God loves you and so do i.
You're well versed in the Scriptures Ken. I applaud you. There was a time when I viewed the cup as half empty. I am such a wretched sinner that I need the assurance that it's not my good or bad works that will get me into Heaven or send me to hell. I am covered by the shed blood of Jesus.
John wrote in 1st John 5:13 that we can know that we have eternal life. Most people don't know that our souls live on forever ever. Every knee will bow and every tongue confess that Jesus is KING of Kings and LORD of Lord's. We will either make that proclamation on the way into Glory or into a lake of sulfur fire. I'm here in Florida and it's 95° here today. I believe this as about as hot as it's ever gonna be for me. Love you Ken.
I’m not sure if Sasha or any of her followers pay attention to astrology, but apparently the U.S. is in the middle of its Pluto return (2022-2024). The last time it returned was during the American Revolution, and look where we are now. So I don’t know how y’all feel about astrology but I find that very interesting. I haven’t read either of these 4th Turning books, but it seems the authors are on a similar wavelength.
I need a good book to read for my annual backpacking trip so maybe I’ll pick one of these up...
I think what happens is that the Dems pull out every last trick and win 2024; and then immediately in 2025 the SHTF in economy as rest of world replaces USD as reserve currency. Btw re war, we are already losing twice as many youth to drugs every year than we lost over a decade in Vietnam; and drug deaths are increasing at an incredible 20%+ clip. Finally, I like the idea of a Sasha book club and will happily get the book and engage.
I like the idea of a 'Sasha book.' that is, one written by her. I've been trying to encourage her to do so... She is actually smart, kind, well-rounded/sane, and has a good sense of humor.
Hi yep I've been dying for this one. By the grace of God or the universe or both I "stumbled" upon Generations in August of 2019. I can't tell you how much better prepared I was for the pandemic - it took all the fear and emotion out of it as soon as I realized what we were in. So helpful and timely.
Jobless post-pandemic and living in Nashville I applied for research jobs that Neil Howe was posting at the time - hoping he was working on the next book and here it is.
Good morning Ms Sasha, this is very interesting. I generally read only one book, the world's all time #1 best seller, the Holy Bible. I tend to be very lazy, so Audible might be a good thing for me as I spent 3 to 4 hours a day in a recumbent trike for exercise to try to keep my blood glucose in control. I am a sober drunk and a failure at marriage, but we serve a God of 2nd chances and He gives us one day at a time to figure out how to live our lives to please Him should we choose to do so, and I have chosen that path.
I enjoy your writing and your podcasts, so count me in for this adventure. Blessings to you and to all who read my dribble🤪
I never heard of this theory before finding your blog. But now I’m hooked. I devour every post immediately. It is the social science, historical equivalent of crack.
And now I have a book, a veritable roadmap for the future.
"'This will require a values consensus and, to administer it, the empowerment of a strong new political regime. If all goes well, there could be a renaissance of civic trust, and more: Today's Third Turning problems—that Rubik's Cube of crime, race, money, family, culture, and ethics —will snap into a Fourth Turning solution.'"
I can't recall when I've read a passage more chilling than this. What is to prevent the current order from throwing off what pretense remains, and simply re-defining what is crime, family, and ethics; establishing a social order of race (ethnicity) in which some are institutionally favoured; for all intents and purposes, western culture is all but eliminated; and money is worthless owing to a completion of the Great Reset, and the institution of a global currency. That solution bears a striking resembance to the one Nazi Germany applied to the Jews, gypsies, and homosexuals in the 1930s.
"'By the 2020s, America could become a society that is good, by today's standards, and also one that works.'"
This is no less unsettling. Today's standards are arbitrary, at best - and it is unclear how it "works" - that word needs to be much more clearly defined.
What IS hopeful is that if he is not correct in how he is reading society at the beginning of the 2020s, he may not be correct about this, either:"'...he believes the Fourth Turning will end in 2030. Meaning the worst part will be over, and things will have finally settled down.'"
"Let’s hope we’re all still alive to see it."
Perhaps.
"'Men who believe themselves to be good, who do not search their own souls, often commit the worst atrocities.'"
A similar quote has been attributed to CS Lewis in his inimitable unvarnished style, but I'll be damned if I can find it anywhere.
"I knew it would be bad, which is what I’ve been writing on this Substack for the past few years, but I didn’t know it would be quite this bad, namely our government’s treatment of the January 6th prisoners, among other horrors."
None of us did.
"At least you’ll be prepared."
At the very least.
I'm sure the day will come when your next essay is not as good as the one previous, but today is not that day.
There is something strange from American people , they always feel they are the chosen one and that whatever other would do , Russians , Chineses , Europeans … this world will be shaped by America and its values .. Today American values are destroying the world order , the human condition itself because of its woke cult and satanic agenda … I don’t believe in America , who does now ? I just hope the American system will succumb to its vices and that the rest of the world will be able to survive and maybe recontruct itself … in other words i and millions of other people all around the world , we distrust America ( its government,its elite and its vanity)… Frankly speaking we do not expect any good influence coming from America , now or in the future .. the best thing America could bring to the world is to ceased to say it is the greatest nation … everybody knows it is only wishful thinking and to cease its meddling with other countries way of life..
I agree that the warmongering Neocons (ie Democratic Party and RINOS) are horrible and cause a huge problem for world peace. With regard to your question; I believe in America because, among other things, America is an honorable set of principles and values enshrined in documents and laws focusing on individual freedoms. Regarding your point about the rest of the world not happy with us, I note that it’s odd that nearly all those in China, Africa, South America, Central America, and Eastern Europe want to become US citizens; and ask you to name 3 countries that the world admires more than the USA?
Agree. To treat wokeism as being synonymous with “American values” is a grave disservice to the founding documents, and the rule of law (esp. the Anglo-American legal system). The fact that Western nations are increasingly captured by a neomarxist fad is not proof that their systems don’t work; rather it’s indicative of the fact that a corrupt ideology has made an end run around those systems. Human nature is not inherently good.
What you consider an “honorable set of principles and values” is despised by a great many of our “fellow Americans.” Why is a class called “The Problem of Whiteness.” at the University of Chicago? Because our ruling class wants it there, that’s why. There are many of our fellow Americans who deeply hate us and that is not an ingredient of a functional society. Hard to see how such deeply embedded hate can be changed.
University of Chicago student exposes racist class: ‘The Problem of Whiteness.’ (3 min)
But how many of them “hate us” only because they’re being told to? They’re followers not rebels (like gen x). My flittering hope is for those who can be still be awoken.
It’s not just what they’re told to believe. It’s that they’re told what they want to believe which is that their endless social dysfunction is due to white racism, “systemic racism” rather than their own atrocious behavior. They also like to believe that “meritocracy” is just a scam used by white supremacists to keep them down and that this can be fixed with “Equity” aka Equal Outcomes and a core value of the Woke left which they most surely not give up. It is at the very core of their Woke religious faith. I do believe Vivek can bring many to our side but I also believe the democrats will double down on “systemic racism” to solidify support on their side. Seems to me we have irreconcilable differences here.
“California Nukes Math Standards For Racial Equity.”
"It’s not just what they’re told to believe. It’s that they’re told what they want to believe which is that their endless social dysfunction is due to white racism, “systemic racism” rather than their own atrocious behavior. "
Interesting analysis, Seva! And the atrocious behavior I would guess is derived from them having too much money but no idea how to create a life based on integrity.
Good article. I live in Chicago so I am quite familiar with the damage done by the sixties riots and that the white people who fled areas turning black left because they were told to get out or because of the crime and social breakdown. I’m retired but worked (CNC machinery) for many years with mostly immigrants from all over the world. Excellent people with traditional values that enabled them to hit the ground running, take advantage of on the job training, learn a skill and join the American middle class. I greatly enjoyed talking to them about their former countries. They would tell me stories about places like Vietnam, Mexico, Iraq (Assyrians), India (Hindu and Muslim) and the USSR (Jews who could finally leave the collapsing “Evil Empire”). Quite fascinating. All of them though were appalled by black behavior and avoided even driving through black areas. Never will you read about that in the msm.
“Today American values are destroying the world order , the human condition itself because of its woke cult and satanic agenda … I don’t believe in America , who does now ?”
I believe America has already ceased to exist as a country internally which is why it’s breaking apart externally due to the “woke cult and satanic agenda” which has destroyed our social cohesion. Those are not “American values” though. Those are Woke values and there are many nonWoke people here whose values are the opposite. Vivek Ramaswamy is a perfect example of someone committed to nonWoke values. Ibram X. Kendi is a perfect example of someone committed to Woke values.
The flaw is not in America though. The flaw is in human nature so where you find people you will see this battle of good vs evil. There’s nothing new or unusual about this. I believe the two wild cards in our future which has already arrived are Vivek and AI. I recommend watching this recent video of Elon Musk talking about his new AI company called “xAI” which will be committed to truth rather than ideology. Quite fascinating. He’s basically saying AGI will have an overview of human nature, see the good and the bad, and go with the good. He says Ray Kurzweil, the legendary AI scientist, believes AGI will occur in 2029 and he agrees with this timeline. The best of times. The worst of times.
“5 Minutes Ago: Elon Musk Stuns Everyone With Statements On X.AI.” (18 min)
The AIGrid. Exclusive Elon Musk Interview. July 16, 2023
A former proud US citizen agrees with you. The people of the American Nation might lead as part of the coalition for health and happiness, but the state of Washington, their gross media, their entertainment syatems, their pretorian guard, and their political class must go away.
"Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind's willingness to use it."
The Neocon war against Russia is not going well, in spite of the propaganda churned out by the western media. Biden has pledged unending support for the Ukrainian government, which allows no opposition party, media or elections - a de facto dictatorship.
As a result of this losing effort NATO/U.S. is running out of weapons and ammunition to send to Ukraine, while at the same time ratcheting up tensions with both Russia and China. There are neocons in positions of power who are itching for a nuclear war with both.
What is at stake is U.S. global hegemony and the dollar as world reserve currency, without which "the American way of life" is unsustainable. If this collapses we are all in for a world of hurt unlike anything in our history.
This is why my biggest worry is that Biden is going to lead us into WWIII.
He is sinking in the polls, now with an approval rating below 40%.
The Democrats have no choice but to keep him (and hope he stays alive) since RFK is hugely popular among old school democrats (like me). They cannot run the risk of opening up the Democratic primaries to debate.
These neocon twits cannot let go of their fantasy of breaking Russia up into pieces that can be exploited by Wall Street, with the same on the menu for China. Their war against Russia, far from defeating it, has strengthened it and pushed it closer to China.
With Biden faltering, the war a disaster, the dollar being replaced in international trade and American "full spectrum dominance" no longer certain, I think these idiots might, in a desperate move to save the sinking ship, start WWIII.
Oh, they'll blame Russia/China, but none of us will be left to care.
I pray this does not happen, but these people are stupid, desperate criminals. If we somehow make it without WWIII the prospects are not good because the decades of endless war fueled by monumental greed and theft are going to come home to roost.
I recently saw a video of Tulsi on Fox News say the democrats are insane and escalating us to nuclear war with Russia because they believe we could win it. Also recently saw a video of Kim Iversen on Rumble where she said she’s afraid the democrats want open war with Russia so that they can declare martial law here and use it to destroy their enemies like us. I agree with both of them. Who could have ever imagined our once great nation would be ruled by such deranged fanatics? Truly bizarre.
"the democrats want open war with Russia so that they can declare martial law here and use it to destroy their enemies like us"
That may be their fantasy, but it implies that it doesn't go nuclear. I do think the Russians are smart and do not want a nuclear war; however, they also know that we are out to destroy them and they are not about to let that happen.
The Fourth Turning, published in 1997, was amazingly prescient. It studies generational warfare cycles through the last several hundred years that last about 80 years or so (4 generations). It can be concisely summarized via the aphorism “hard times create strong men; strong men create good times; good times create weak men; weak men create hard times.” Well worth a read!
I'm not sure future historians will look back on 2023 as The Year That Was. If you're looking for pivotal events, they don't come much bigger than the 2021-2022 Pandemic, in which the entire world seemed to take a break from sanity. It wasn't just the political leadership or the educated and scientific elites either. Everyday human beings went at each other on the streets and even in their own homes and families. I've always felt that most of history passes by most of us unnoticed--there was a survey of India in the 1970s that found that many rural citizens had never heard of the British Raj--but every so often a series of events erupts on all of us--the Black Death or WW II for example. The Pandemic surely qualifies as such a turning, no?.
My own take (not involving any "cycles") on what we are living through is rather different. Just off the top of my head (in this particular wording) ...
By far the most significant recent development is that the Far (i.e. "extremist") Left has become the Near Left. This is just as much a disaster as if the Far (i.e. "extremist") Right had become the Near Right. My practical (and fairly objective) definition of "extremist" is "person who regards moderates as extremists of the other side". (As is seen in the way the modern Left uses "Far Right".) What is dangerous about extremist ideologies is that, by being three things (that go together) moralistic, demonizing, and Utopian, they put no limits on what can and should (in their view) be done to their opponents. The classic (though awkward) formulation is "The end justifies the means". (More tractable is "arrogation".) Once that attitude is adopted, there is no stopping point. It is a classic Slippery Slope, in this case to hell. What begins as something like "Onward Christian soldiers" soon degenerates into "I can't be the first one to stop clapping". Hope turns into fear. And fear is justified: the ideology puts no limits on violating rights. That is, to my mind, the clear and present danger.
"My practical (and fairly objective) definition of "extremist" is "person who regards moderates as extremists of the other side". "
Fascinating post, Mr. White, and fascinating definition of "extremism." People keep asking me what I mean when I use that word. Your definition above captures exactly what happens when I try to dialogue with such people.
I actually noticed that phenomenon when I was a (political junkie) teenager in the 70s. (I watched all or almost all of the Watergate Hearings.) In those days, most of the examples came from the right, always calling Demos Commies. Those days are gone. Though they did not seem so great at the time, I wish we had them back ...
While there are some 'true believers' (aka; useful idiots that are quickly censored/disposed of as this interview on the book, "Political Ponerology” explains), I disagree that most leftists, especially those who attain power or wish to, think they are doing good. Check out this interview on evil, “Political Ponerology”. ~ https://www.theepochtimes.com/psychologist-explains-why-societies-go-mad_5397065.html ~
In this brilliantly insightful episode of Over the Target, Michael Rectenwald, author of “The Great Reset and the Struggle for Liberty,” speaks w Lee Smith about the Polish doctor who lived through Nazism & communism (leftist ideologies) & unlocked “the general laws of the origin of evil.”
*2:20 “Political Ponerology” describes how govts become evil
5:00 The origins of evil and the psychology of evil....
We could be talking here about rebellious teenagers opposing their parents. That actually is what is occurring in this country now, but I think ours is more intense in that particular respect.
As was the case during Civil War (second turning), we should not expect a hero generation to emerge. Martin Armstrong has long called for this chaos to end around 2032 with the end of the American republic and splitting up of the country. The rebuild can begin then.
I don't know Sasha, Howe and Strauss' theories of something happening ever so often can't be proven (or disproven.) Personally, I see the world has having been in one big social upheaval ever since the French Revolution (the American Revolution was aimed at independence from Great Britain), particularly since the 1848 European revolutions and the subsequent rise of Communism (Marxism and Communism are one and the same. ) If you want to read a book that really lays out, read this one - https://www.amazon.com/Late-Great-Planet-Earth/dp/1470886642. We expected the predictions to take place in the 70s and 80s. Instead, they're happening now.
I need to be careful here. After sleeping on it and after reading on Strauss and Howe, I understand some of the background to the excitement over their “generational theory.”
But I have to object, whether anyone/ everyone likes it, or doesn’t, and the reasons to object should be obvious.
Any, and I mean ANY time beliefs and assumptions direct the actions of humans, humans surrender their free will.
I should probably leave it at that, but whether those beliefs or assumptions stem from deeply-held religious conviction or from astute interpretation of scientific data, or from anything in between, allowing prediction to decide for us what will become of us all is a fundamental error.
On the one hand, if you wish to believe that the stars align and determine how we act and what will transpire, that’s your right; if you choose to allow religious faith to set your expectations for humanity and the future that’s okay too. If you are enthralled by prophecy, by Nostradamus, or by scientific theories of cyclic behavior, so be it.
But while Strauss and Howe put some theoetical effort behind it, just like all of the others, they go too far. And they scare the hell out of people. Why not? They’re selling something. The motives of profit, power, influence and recognition excuse everything.
Now that I’ve dissed everyone, I’ll tell you why. What EVERYONE does affects everyone else. Lord knows I won’t be alive to see all of that, I’m over seventy now and I’m feeling extremely mortal, at this point in time. But if you’re gonna try and tell me to “bend a knee” or kowtow to globalists or to prepare for battle, y’all aren’t going to like my response.
If I could make one single huge thing happen, I would flatten and destroy the human lust for power. I think that probably sounds better than a stake through the heart of every globalist and politician. Were we to eliminate everyone who’s flawed, not a human would be left standing.
But if I could express one huge caveat for all humans that would take hold and make a difference, it would be this:
Do not allow anyone’s predictions to determine what you will do.
Anyone.
"Do not allow anyone’s predictions to determine what you will do."
JFK articulated this sentiment in the speech that many believe got him killed:
"Let us examine our attitude toward peace itself. Too many of us think it is impossible. Too many think it unreal. But that is a dangerous, defeatist belief. It leads to the conclusion that war is inevitable—that mankind is doomed—that we are gripped by forces we cannot control. We need not accept that view. Our problems are manmade—therefore, they can be solved by man. And man can be as big as he wants. No problem of human destiny is beyond human beings. Man's reason and spirit have often solved the seemingly unsolvable—and we believe they can do it again."
I wrote a short substack essay with thoughts on war, linked below. JFK was a war veteran. Some called him a hero for his actions when his PT boat was sunk, but if not a hero he had a really bad day. Kennedy and most all WW2 vets, including Nikita Khrushchev, did not want more war. We've reached that point, 80 years after the last major war, where those remembering it are gone or at least too old to influence things, and hence are arrogantly irresponsible. This may be the cause of what is seen as the fourth turning. Also, though not immediately evident, it is true that war deaths have dropped significantly since the advent of nuclear weapons. Their is a saying I heard somewhere; "Against the foolishness of man the gods themselves contend in vain."
https://drp314.substack.com/p/some-disjointed-thoughts-on-war
I should have said: and hence those now in charge are arrogantly irresponsible.
Defeatist thinking just can’t be allowed to sink the ship. It seems like many think the elitist corporatocracy grabbing power through the WEF “partnership” with the United Nations is the end of freedom, and that it can’t be stopped. I’m 100% certain that it can be. The question is whether it will be.
I often wonder about the theories on JFKs assassination, and have my own. I doubt this one expression was the issue behind JFK’s demise, rather, the USSR would not have acceded to the US blockade without a behind-the-scenes deal. I think his planned assassination, was that deal.
You may be right. That’s an even dimmer view of government forces than mine.
"I doubt this one expression was the issue behind JFK’s demise"
It was the culmination of his transformation from a 1950s Cold Warrior to realizing that one wrong move could end life on earth, as became clear in the Cuban Missile Crisis, and that the Russians were human beings who, like us, cared about their childrens future. It was the attempt to move toward rapprochement with the Russians and the ratcheting down of Cold War tensions that got him killed, because it would have meant the fascist forces in our own government couldn't have a permanent enemy and endless war and the gravy train that implies for the MIC.
"...just like all of the others, they go too far. And they scare the hell out of people. Why not? They’re selling something. The motives of profit, power, influence and recognition excuse everything."
THIS (and the ten minutes of commercials for every three minutes of actual content) is why I stopped listening to all conservative talk radio with the exception of Rush. This is also why I absoutely cannot stand Mark Levin.
Bad news with no hope. Thank you, no.
I’m big on hope.
Hope dies last...
Perhaps. We could wax poetic on that topic, in fact, maybe I will.
Same.
Gorka is a better, more optimistic listen, but yes, even he is part of the political grift process.
You made a lot of good points and did not diss anyone because you wrote in a fair and non-accusatory manner. I am glad you had the courage to voice your rational view.
Thank you. In particular I don’t want to diss Sasha, who I respect.
Ken, I held some of your views at the onset of finding the “generations” theory so I’ll match your goal to summarize into one wish. You wish to remove the lust for power (obv impossible) and that we not let anyone’s predictions determine what we do.
I think what you’re missing is these aren’t predictions, events have already happened and perhaps consider that Strauss and Howe aren’t “selling you” anything, they’re just pointing out these cycles in (maybe) a more interesting or palatable way than those before them.
For example Howe is currently hopeful that we’ll come out of this winter “fourth turning” stronger, whereas myself, normally a resilient optimist, am not so sure.
In short, I believe it’s doing them and the huge amount of research they have done a blatant disservice to relegate their work to the predictions section of the bookstore, or of your Rolodex of opinions.
🤙
Rolodex. Thanks, I don’t even get an Excel sheet? I don’t deny I’ve expressed an opinion, but then, so have you, and you are entitled to it. As I am to mine. You may not have really noticed, but there’s a lot of that being expressed.
Let’s look at what Sasha excerpted:
“Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse—or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.
We cannot stop the seasons of history, but we can prepare for them. Right now, in 1997, we have eight, ten, perhaps a dozen more years to get ready. Then events will begin to take choices out of our hands. Yes, winter is coming, but our path through that winter is up to us.”
That doesn’t sound to me like things that have happened. We are expected to buy into it. Research did not name it The Fourth Turning, the authors did. What if, just imagine with me for a moment, a “winter” is NOT coming, but we can sure as hell put one there? Whyyy, anyone can see it is!! Right?
You put me in the mind of Bible-beaters proclaiming the end of the world and the Second Coming. They’ve been proclaiming it throughout my longish life, and at any point in my life, had I argued with any of them I’d have certainly had my head up my ass. But we’re still waiting. Aren’t we?
So because of all of that certainty, Israel was carved out of the Middle East where there wasn’t one, because it had to be there for prophecy to be fulfilled. So will the prophecies be correct, or have we instead, made them possible?
My points are based on reality as I know it. As I’ve said, you are free to disagree. But you know, they are indeed selling books.
Gotta go, time to stick your name and substack into my archaic cardboard Rolodex. Have a happy.
Lol thanks Ken.
Brief thoughts - 1. You claim “doesn’t sound like things that have happened” yet I read through Sasha’s excerpt and don’t see one event listed.
I had friends lose houses in the banking - short sale - whatever collapse of 2006-2008, and the trajectory of their lives were shifted. Those events didn’t affect you (possibly) - being in a different generation and season life - ie, retired or ready to retire.
My point is I think you’re projecting, rather than receiving.
You are correct in that I am not receiving. I don’t buy into predictions, or hype, or fear-mongering. I try to gather all of the information I can, decide what out of that is probably true, and then I have to work to avoid reaching my own predictive conclusions through probabilities, generated by all of that. I usually do not succeed, and reach them anyway.
This may shock you, but I am not saying those predictions are wrong and/or entirely without merit. I attempted to issue a caveat toward allowing said predictions to rule one’s actions. When people do that, they act in ways that affect everybody else, and the next thing you know, shit happens that was predicted. I don’t think that’s a good thing. I think we should be thinking for ourselves, exercising free will, and determining appropriate outcomes by those actions.
Projecting, I’m not sure how that applies, but you’ll probably tell me. Reading that will be easier than trying to figure it out.
By the way, I meant to do a disservice to those who make huge predictions. Master of my fate? No way. Defensive of my ability to affect my fate in positive ways versus the opposite, absolutely.
And yes I used Rolodex = way more fun sounding than excel 😆
I'm in! I mean, how could this be any scarier than Revelations!?
History is fascinating and I'm all for learning from history to not make the same mistakes again!
Well said Ken. Will I see you in Glory when the roll is called up yonder?
That, as you know, is not up to me. I’ve always wondered just how far forgiveness extends. I don’t do well on a daily basis. My thoughts are not in line with agendas of any kind, and it is a willful sort of thing. So I’m inclined to say, I don’t expect to be that fortunate.
There are more mysteries to life than my feeble imagination can handle.
Dearest Ken, it's really very simple. If you believe that Jesus sacrifice on the cross was for all who have sinned, and we All have, and that God raised Him up on the 3rd day. You're half way there. God sent His Son because He knew we couldn't be perfect because our sin nature, caused by Adam and Eve not believing God and their disobedience, if any were to be saved, He would have to provide the sacrifice, and He did. If you'll believe that His work on the cross completed the task and that you can't earn salvation with good works, you're there. When you screw up, confess your sin and ask for and recieve His forgiveness. I'm right behind you at 65, but I know where I'm gonna spend eternity. I hope and pray to see you there my friend. God loves you and so do i.
There’s a fly in the ointment.
Hebrews 10:26
“For if we sin wilfully after that we have received the knowledge of the truth, there remaineth no more sacrifice for sins,”
King James Version (KJV)
This suggests a need for full compliance.
You're well versed in the Scriptures Ken. I applaud you. There was a time when I viewed the cup as half empty. I am such a wretched sinner that I need the assurance that it's not my good or bad works that will get me into Heaven or send me to hell. I am covered by the shed blood of Jesus.
John wrote in 1st John 5:13 that we can know that we have eternal life. Most people don't know that our souls live on forever ever. Every knee will bow and every tongue confess that Jesus is KING of Kings and LORD of Lord's. We will either make that proclamation on the way into Glory or into a lake of sulfur fire. I'm here in Florida and it's 95° here today. I believe this as about as hot as it's ever gonna be for me. Love you Ken.
I could easily change that. 😸
I’m not sure if Sasha or any of her followers pay attention to astrology, but apparently the U.S. is in the middle of its Pluto return (2022-2024). The last time it returned was during the American Revolution, and look where we are now. So I don’t know how y’all feel about astrology but I find that very interesting. I haven’t read either of these 4th Turning books, but it seems the authors are on a similar wavelength.
I need a good book to read for my annual backpacking trip so maybe I’ll pick one of these up...
I think what happens is that the Dems pull out every last trick and win 2024; and then immediately in 2025 the SHTF in economy as rest of world replaces USD as reserve currency. Btw re war, we are already losing twice as many youth to drugs every year than we lost over a decade in Vietnam; and drug deaths are increasing at an incredible 20%+ clip. Finally, I like the idea of a Sasha book club and will happily get the book and engage.
I like the idea of a 'Sasha book.' that is, one written by her. I've been trying to encourage her to do so... She is actually smart, kind, well-rounded/sane, and has a good sense of humor.
Hi yep I've been dying for this one. By the grace of God or the universe or both I "stumbled" upon Generations in August of 2019. I can't tell you how much better prepared I was for the pandemic - it took all the fear and emotion out of it as soon as I realized what we were in. So helpful and timely.
Jobless post-pandemic and living in Nashville I applied for research jobs that Neil Howe was posting at the time - hoping he was working on the next book and here it is.
If you start the club I'd be interested..
Good morning Ms Sasha, this is very interesting. I generally read only one book, the world's all time #1 best seller, the Holy Bible. I tend to be very lazy, so Audible might be a good thing for me as I spent 3 to 4 hours a day in a recumbent trike for exercise to try to keep my blood glucose in control. I am a sober drunk and a failure at marriage, but we serve a God of 2nd chances and He gives us one day at a time to figure out how to live our lives to please Him should we choose to do so, and I have chosen that path.
I enjoy your writing and your podcasts, so count me in for this adventure. Blessings to you and to all who read my dribble🤪
Keep at it, man. It is only by the grace of God that any of us have that opportunity, every morning.
Sashs,
I’m in!
I never heard of this theory before finding your blog. But now I’m hooked. I devour every post immediately. It is the social science, historical equivalent of crack.
And now I have a book, a veritable roadmap for the future.
You Rock!
"'This will require a values consensus and, to administer it, the empowerment of a strong new political regime. If all goes well, there could be a renaissance of civic trust, and more: Today's Third Turning problems—that Rubik's Cube of crime, race, money, family, culture, and ethics —will snap into a Fourth Turning solution.'"
I can't recall when I've read a passage more chilling than this. What is to prevent the current order from throwing off what pretense remains, and simply re-defining what is crime, family, and ethics; establishing a social order of race (ethnicity) in which some are institutionally favoured; for all intents and purposes, western culture is all but eliminated; and money is worthless owing to a completion of the Great Reset, and the institution of a global currency. That solution bears a striking resembance to the one Nazi Germany applied to the Jews, gypsies, and homosexuals in the 1930s.
"'By the 2020s, America could become a society that is good, by today's standards, and also one that works.'"
This is no less unsettling. Today's standards are arbitrary, at best - and it is unclear how it "works" - that word needs to be much more clearly defined.
What IS hopeful is that if he is not correct in how he is reading society at the beginning of the 2020s, he may not be correct about this, either:"'...he believes the Fourth Turning will end in 2030. Meaning the worst part will be over, and things will have finally settled down.'"
"Let’s hope we’re all still alive to see it."
Perhaps.
"'Men who believe themselves to be good, who do not search their own souls, often commit the worst atrocities.'"
A similar quote has been attributed to CS Lewis in his inimitable unvarnished style, but I'll be damned if I can find it anywhere.
"I knew it would be bad, which is what I’ve been writing on this Substack for the past few years, but I didn’t know it would be quite this bad, namely our government’s treatment of the January 6th prisoners, among other horrors."
None of us did.
"At least you’ll be prepared."
At the very least.
I'm sure the day will come when your next essay is not as good as the one previous, but today is not that day.
Another excellent offering, Sasha!
There is something strange from American people , they always feel they are the chosen one and that whatever other would do , Russians , Chineses , Europeans … this world will be shaped by America and its values .. Today American values are destroying the world order , the human condition itself because of its woke cult and satanic agenda … I don’t believe in America , who does now ? I just hope the American system will succumb to its vices and that the rest of the world will be able to survive and maybe recontruct itself … in other words i and millions of other people all around the world , we distrust America ( its government,its elite and its vanity)… Frankly speaking we do not expect any good influence coming from America , now or in the future .. the best thing America could bring to the world is to ceased to say it is the greatest nation … everybody knows it is only wishful thinking and to cease its meddling with other countries way of life..
I agree that the warmongering Neocons (ie Democratic Party and RINOS) are horrible and cause a huge problem for world peace. With regard to your question; I believe in America because, among other things, America is an honorable set of principles and values enshrined in documents and laws focusing on individual freedoms. Regarding your point about the rest of the world not happy with us, I note that it’s odd that nearly all those in China, Africa, South America, Central America, and Eastern Europe want to become US citizens; and ask you to name 3 countries that the world admires more than the USA?
Agree. To treat wokeism as being synonymous with “American values” is a grave disservice to the founding documents, and the rule of law (esp. the Anglo-American legal system). The fact that Western nations are increasingly captured by a neomarxist fad is not proof that their systems don’t work; rather it’s indicative of the fact that a corrupt ideology has made an end run around those systems. Human nature is not inherently good.
What you consider an “honorable set of principles and values” is despised by a great many of our “fellow Americans.” Why is a class called “The Problem of Whiteness.” at the University of Chicago? Because our ruling class wants it there, that’s why. There are many of our fellow Americans who deeply hate us and that is not an ingredient of a functional society. Hard to see how such deeply embedded hate can be changed.
University of Chicago student exposes racist class: ‘The Problem of Whiteness.’ (3 min)
Fox News. July 17, 2023
https://youtu.be/bqUho3GGWsE
But how many of them “hate us” only because they’re being told to? They’re followers not rebels (like gen x). My flittering hope is for those who can be still be awoken.
It’s not just what they’re told to believe. It’s that they’re told what they want to believe which is that their endless social dysfunction is due to white racism, “systemic racism” rather than their own atrocious behavior. They also like to believe that “meritocracy” is just a scam used by white supremacists to keep them down and that this can be fixed with “Equity” aka Equal Outcomes and a core value of the Woke left which they most surely not give up. It is at the very core of their Woke religious faith. I do believe Vivek can bring many to our side but I also believe the democrats will double down on “systemic racism” to solidify support on their side. Seems to me we have irreconcilable differences here.
“California Nukes Math Standards For Racial Equity.”
Breaking Points. Saagar Enjeti. July 17, 2023
https://youtu.be/8EalOqHt5-0
Seva:
"It’s not just what they’re told to believe. It’s that they’re told what they want to believe which is that their endless social dysfunction is due to white racism, “systemic racism” rather than their own atrocious behavior. "
Interesting analysis, Seva! And the atrocious behavior I would guess is derived from them having too much money but no idea how to create a life based on integrity.
Here's a substack about the 60's riots that broke out after LBJ dropped the Great Society Bomb: https://donsurber.substack.com/p/the-riot-that-sent-my-family-to-the
Good article. I live in Chicago so I am quite familiar with the damage done by the sixties riots and that the white people who fled areas turning black left because they were told to get out or because of the crime and social breakdown. I’m retired but worked (CNC machinery) for many years with mostly immigrants from all over the world. Excellent people with traditional values that enabled them to hit the ground running, take advantage of on the job training, learn a skill and join the American middle class. I greatly enjoyed talking to them about their former countries. They would tell me stories about places like Vietnam, Mexico, Iraq (Assyrians), India (Hindu and Muslim) and the USSR (Jews who could finally leave the collapsing “Evil Empire”). Quite fascinating. All of them though were appalled by black behavior and avoided even driving through black areas. Never will you read about that in the msm.
“Today American values are destroying the world order , the human condition itself because of its woke cult and satanic agenda … I don’t believe in America , who does now ?”
I believe America has already ceased to exist as a country internally which is why it’s breaking apart externally due to the “woke cult and satanic agenda” which has destroyed our social cohesion. Those are not “American values” though. Those are Woke values and there are many nonWoke people here whose values are the opposite. Vivek Ramaswamy is a perfect example of someone committed to nonWoke values. Ibram X. Kendi is a perfect example of someone committed to Woke values.
The flaw is not in America though. The flaw is in human nature so where you find people you will see this battle of good vs evil. There’s nothing new or unusual about this. I believe the two wild cards in our future which has already arrived are Vivek and AI. I recommend watching this recent video of Elon Musk talking about his new AI company called “xAI” which will be committed to truth rather than ideology. Quite fascinating. He’s basically saying AGI will have an overview of human nature, see the good and the bad, and go with the good. He says Ray Kurzweil, the legendary AI scientist, believes AGI will occur in 2029 and he agrees with this timeline. The best of times. The worst of times.
“5 Minutes Ago: Elon Musk Stuns Everyone With Statements On X.AI.” (18 min)
The AIGrid. Exclusive Elon Musk Interview. July 16, 2023
https://youtu.be/Xd8fNiySYLQ
A former proud US citizen agrees with you. The people of the American Nation might lead as part of the coalition for health and happiness, but the state of Washington, their gross media, their entertainment syatems, their pretorian guard, and their political class must go away.
It's the I-5 corridor, Old School Counselor. The Big One might take it out, or global warming could drown it.
How about, ALL meddling? How about that?
"Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind's willingness to use it."
The Neocon war against Russia is not going well, in spite of the propaganda churned out by the western media. Biden has pledged unending support for the Ukrainian government, which allows no opposition party, media or elections - a de facto dictatorship.
As a result of this losing effort NATO/U.S. is running out of weapons and ammunition to send to Ukraine, while at the same time ratcheting up tensions with both Russia and China. There are neocons in positions of power who are itching for a nuclear war with both.
What is at stake is U.S. global hegemony and the dollar as world reserve currency, without which "the American way of life" is unsustainable. If this collapses we are all in for a world of hurt unlike anything in our history.
This is why my biggest worry is that Biden is going to lead us into WWIII.
He is sinking in the polls, now with an approval rating below 40%.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
The Democrats have no choice but to keep him (and hope he stays alive) since RFK is hugely popular among old school democrats (like me). They cannot run the risk of opening up the Democratic primaries to debate.
https://thefederalist.com/2023/07/18/establishment-democrats-cant-ditch-biden-because-of-likable-old-schoolers-like-rfk-jr/
These neocon twits cannot let go of their fantasy of breaking Russia up into pieces that can be exploited by Wall Street, with the same on the menu for China. Their war against Russia, far from defeating it, has strengthened it and pushed it closer to China.
With Biden faltering, the war a disaster, the dollar being replaced in international trade and American "full spectrum dominance" no longer certain, I think these idiots might, in a desperate move to save the sinking ship, start WWIII.
Oh, they'll blame Russia/China, but none of us will be left to care.
I pray this does not happen, but these people are stupid, desperate criminals. If we somehow make it without WWIII the prospects are not good because the decades of endless war fueled by monumental greed and theft are going to come home to roost.
Out of oil, out of munitions...yep, brilliant strategy.
Sorry Taiwan...
I recently saw a video of Tulsi on Fox News say the democrats are insane and escalating us to nuclear war with Russia because they believe we could win it. Also recently saw a video of Kim Iversen on Rumble where she said she’s afraid the democrats want open war with Russia so that they can declare martial law here and use it to destroy their enemies like us. I agree with both of them. Who could have ever imagined our once great nation would be ruled by such deranged fanatics? Truly bizarre.
"the democrats want open war with Russia so that they can declare martial law here and use it to destroy their enemies like us"
That may be their fantasy, but it implies that it doesn't go nuclear. I do think the Russians are smart and do not want a nuclear war; however, they also know that we are out to destroy them and they are not about to let that happen.
The Fourth Turning, published in 1997, was amazingly prescient. It studies generational warfare cycles through the last several hundred years that last about 80 years or so (4 generations). It can be concisely summarized via the aphorism “hard times create strong men; strong men create good times; good times create weak men; weak men create hard times.” Well worth a read!
I'm not sure future historians will look back on 2023 as The Year That Was. If you're looking for pivotal events, they don't come much bigger than the 2021-2022 Pandemic, in which the entire world seemed to take a break from sanity. It wasn't just the political leadership or the educated and scientific elites either. Everyday human beings went at each other on the streets and even in their own homes and families. I've always felt that most of history passes by most of us unnoticed--there was a survey of India in the 1970s that found that many rural citizens had never heard of the British Raj--but every so often a series of events erupts on all of us--the Black Death or WW II for example. The Pandemic surely qualifies as such a turning, no?.
My own take (not involving any "cycles") on what we are living through is rather different. Just off the top of my head (in this particular wording) ...
By far the most significant recent development is that the Far (i.e. "extremist") Left has become the Near Left. This is just as much a disaster as if the Far (i.e. "extremist") Right had become the Near Right. My practical (and fairly objective) definition of "extremist" is "person who regards moderates as extremists of the other side". (As is seen in the way the modern Left uses "Far Right".) What is dangerous about extremist ideologies is that, by being three things (that go together) moralistic, demonizing, and Utopian, they put no limits on what can and should (in their view) be done to their opponents. The classic (though awkward) formulation is "The end justifies the means". (More tractable is "arrogation".) Once that attitude is adopted, there is no stopping point. It is a classic Slippery Slope, in this case to hell. What begins as something like "Onward Christian soldiers" soon degenerates into "I can't be the first one to stop clapping". Hope turns into fear. And fear is justified: the ideology puts no limits on violating rights. That is, to my mind, the clear and present danger.
"My practical (and fairly objective) definition of "extremist" is "person who regards moderates as extremists of the other side". "
Fascinating post, Mr. White, and fascinating definition of "extremism." People keep asking me what I mean when I use that word. Your definition above captures exactly what happens when I try to dialogue with such people.
I actually noticed that phenomenon when I was a (political junkie) teenager in the 70s. (I watched all or almost all of the Watergate Hearings.) In those days, most of the examples came from the right, always calling Demos Commies. Those days are gone. Though they did not seem so great at the time, I wish we had them back ...
Likewise!
I do also but has nothing to do with politics.
While there are some 'true believers' (aka; useful idiots that are quickly censored/disposed of as this interview on the book, "Political Ponerology” explains), I disagree that most leftists, especially those who attain power or wish to, think they are doing good. Check out this interview on evil, “Political Ponerology”. ~ https://www.theepochtimes.com/psychologist-explains-why-societies-go-mad_5397065.html ~
In this brilliantly insightful episode of Over the Target, Michael Rectenwald, author of “The Great Reset and the Struggle for Liberty,” speaks w Lee Smith about the Polish doctor who lived through Nazism & communism (leftist ideologies) & unlocked “the general laws of the origin of evil.”
*2:20 “Political Ponerology” describes how govts become evil
5:00 The origins of evil and the psychology of evil....
Fascinating, sort of like heuristic course corrections based on periods approximating average lifetimes ... ?
We could be talking here about rebellious teenagers opposing their parents. That actually is what is occurring in this country now, but I think ours is more intense in that particular respect.
As was the case during Civil War (second turning), we should not expect a hero generation to emerge. Martin Armstrong has long called for this chaos to end around 2032 with the end of the American republic and splitting up of the country. The rebuild can begin then.
I don't know Sasha, Howe and Strauss' theories of something happening ever so often can't be proven (or disproven.) Personally, I see the world has having been in one big social upheaval ever since the French Revolution (the American Revolution was aimed at independence from Great Britain), particularly since the 1848 European revolutions and the subsequent rise of Communism (Marxism and Communism are one and the same. ) If you want to read a book that really lays out, read this one - https://www.amazon.com/Late-Great-Planet-Earth/dp/1470886642. We expected the predictions to take place in the 70s and 80s. Instead, they're happening now.