What is the Fourth Turning?

To answer yet again a question I get asked a lot...

Later this evening, I’ll be posting a piece on Joe Biden. I had planned on posting it last night, but then I realized that the White House Correspondents Dinner was tonight. I have to see how that goes. Probably Biden will do “fine,” and the media will over-praise him in hopes of undoing the damage caused over the past few days, but I’d still like to wait and see before finishing it.

In the meantime, here is an answer to the question I get all of the time. What is the Fourth Turning, and why is this Substack called that?

The Fourth Turning is based on this book, written in 1997 by Neil Howe and William H. Strauss:

It was updated in 2023 by Neil Howe:

This video lays out the basics very plainly and clearly. It’s worth a watch:

Howe and Strauss wrote The Fourth Turning way back in 1997 and accurately predicted the moment we’re living through now. Some of the quotes from The Fourth Turning are a bit dramatic and have been adjusted somewhat by Neil Howe, who wrote an update called The Fourth Turning is Here.

I prefer the original because it was slightly more objective. Trump broke everyone’s brains, but especially the events of January 6th. But both books are certainly worth reading. You can find them on Amazon or anywhere else you get your books. Click the books above and they will take you to Amazon.

I became fascinated by this theory after doing a deep dive into Steve Bannon. As a former member of the bubble of the Left, I always wrote off The Fourth Turning as some extremist fantasy associated with Bannon. But of course, I was wrong, not just about the book but about Steve Bannon.

Once I read the book and realized how nuanced it was, I began to understand what Neil Howe was talking about regarding generational differences and the seasons of history people are born into.

Here are some quotes on The Fourth Turning from the original book:

“The next Fourth Turning is due to begin shortly after the new millennium, midway through the Oh-Oh decade. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation, and empire. Yet this time of trouble will bring seeds of social rebirth. Americans will share a regret about recent mistakes—and a resolute new consensus about what to do. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.

The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort—in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it. In the Civil War, the two capital cities would surely have incinerated each other had the means been at hand. In World War II, America invented a new technology of annihilation, which the nation swiftly put to use. This time, America will enter a Fourth Turning with the means to inflict unimaginable horrors and, perhaps, will confront adversaries who possess the same.

Yet Americans will also enter the Fourth Turning with a unique opportunity to achieve a new greatness as a people. Many despair that values that were new in the 1960s are today so entwined with social dysfunction and cultural decay that they can no longer lead anywhere positive. Through the current Unraveling era, that is probably true. But in the crucible of Crisis, that will change. As the old civic order gives way, Americans will have to craft a new one. This will require a values consensus and, to administer it, the empowerment of a strong new political regime. If all goes well, there could be a renaissance of civic trust, and more: Today’s Third Turning problems—that Rubik’s Cube of crime, race, money, family, culture, and ethics—will snap into a Fourth Turning solution. America’s post-Crisis answers will be as organically interconnected as today’s pre-Crisis questions seem hopelessly tangled. By the 2020s, America could become a society that is good, by today’s standards, and also one that works.

Thus might the next Fourth Turning end in apocalypse—or glory. The nation could be ruined, its democracy destroyed, and millions of people scattered or killed. Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition. The rhythms of history do not reveal the outcome of the coming Crisis; all they suggest is the timing and dimension.”

And here is this same passage in the update:

“What typically occurs early in a Fourth Turning—the initial catalyzing event, the deepening loss of civic trust, the galvanizing of partisanship, the rise of creedal passions, and the scramble to reconstruct national policies and priorities—all this has already happened. The later and more eventful stages of a Fourth Turning still lie ahead.

Every Fourth Turning unleashes social forces that push the nation, before the era is over, into a great national challenge: a single urgent test or threat that will draw all other problems into it and require the extraordinary mobilization of most Americans. We don’t yet know what this challenge is. Historically, it has nearly always been connected to the outcome of a major war either between America and foreign powers, or between different groups within America, or both.

War may not be inevitable. Yet even if it is not, the very survival of the nation will feel at stake. The challenge will require a degree of public engagement and sacrifice that few Americans today have experienced earlier in their lives. Remnants of the old social and policy order will disintegrate. And by the time the “challenge is resolved, America will acquire a new collective identity with a new understanding of income, class, race, nation, and empire. For the rising generation of Millennials, the bonds of civic membership will strengthen, offering more to each citizen yet also requiring more from each citizen.”

In any case, sometime before the mid-2030s, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, the Civil War, and the twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.

The risk of catastrophe will be high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil conflict, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort—in other words, a total war—precisely because so much will seem to rest on the outcome.

Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction and in humanity’s willingness to use it. During the Civil War, the two capital cities would surely have incinerated each other had the two sides possessed the means to do so. During World War II, America enlisted its best and brightest young minds to invent such a technology—which the nation swiftly put to use. During the Millennial Crisis, America will possess the ability to inflict unimaginable horrors—and confront adversaries who possess the same.

Yet Americans will also gain, by the end of the Fourth Turning, a unique opportunity to achieve a new greatness as a people. They will be able to solve long-term national problems and perhaps lead the way in solving global problems as well. This too is part of the Fourth Turning historical track record.

The U.S. Civil War, for example, reunited the states, abolished slavery, and accelerated the global spread of democratic nationalism. The New Deal and World War II transformed America into a vastly more affluent and equitable society than it had been before—and into a nation powerful enough to help many other countries grow more prosperous and democratic themselves throughout the rest of the twentieth century.

In about a decade, perhaps in the early or mid-2030s, America will exit winter and enter spring. The First Turning will begin. The mood of America during this spring season will please some and displease others. Individualism will be weaker and community will be stronger than most of us recall from circa-2000. Public trust will be stronger, institutions more effective, and national optimism higher. Yet the culture will be tamer, social conscience weaker, and pressure to conform heavier. If the current Fourth Turning ends well, America will be able enjoy its next golden age “ or at least an era that will feel like a golden age to those who build it. Come this spring, America’s chief preoccupation will be filling out and completing the new order whose rough framework was only hastily hoisted into place at the end of the winter.”

As you can see, the update is far less catastrophic than the original. But I don’t know. I kind of prefer the original.

Why do I call this Substack the Fourth Turning?

It was a decision made on the fly after I was linked by Real Clear Politics. I needed a different name than just my name. I wanted “free thinking” to be there, and I thought I could use the Fourth Turning as a way to define the moment we’re living through.

I’ve been thinking of changing the name, but I haven’t come up with anything good yet.

There are other generational theories out there. One is the Fourth Founding - James Strock.

There is another book called Pendulum: How Past Generations Shape Our Present and Predict our future.

In this book, the authors - Michael R. Drew and Roy H. Williams, divide Neil Howe’s 80-year cycle into two 40-year cycles. One is the “me” cycle (individualism) and one is the “we” cycle (collectivism).

They wrote the book around 2011 and were able to accurately predict that 2023 would be the height of the “witch hunts” phase of the collectivist period we’re living through now.

The idea is that humans always take a good thing too far, which sends the pendulum swinging back in the other direction.

And check out what they predicted 2023 would be like:

The second half of the Upswing of “We” and the first half of the Downswing from it (2013–2023) bring an ideological “righteousness” that seems to spring from any group gathered around a cause. The inevitable result is judgmental legalism and witch hunts. The origin of the term witch hunt was the Salem witch trials, a series of hearings before county court officials to prosecute people accused of witchcraft in the counties of Essex, Suffolk, and Middlesex in colonial Massachusetts, between February 1692 and May 1693,6 exactly at the beginning of the second half of the Upswing toward the “We” Zenith of 1703.

Senator Joseph McCarthy was an American promoter of this witch-hunt attitude at America’s most recent “We” Zenith of 1943 (see the “House Un-American Activities Committee,” 1937–1953); Adolf Hitler was the German promoter (see the Holocaust, 1933–1945); and Joseph Stalin was the Soviet promoter (see the Great Purge, 1936–1938). Our hope is that we might collectively choose to skip this development as we approach the “We” Zenith of 2023. If enough of us are aware of this trend toward judgmental self-righteousness, perhaps we can resist demonizing those who disagree with us and avoid the societal polarization that results from it. A truly great society is one in which being unpopular can be safe.

That is amazing, right? I was impressed. It shows what goes wrong when collectivism comes to an end, which is why I keep saying the Left’s empire is collapsing. They have nowhere else to go but down.

If their theory is right, we’re slowly heading out of the “witch hunt” phase and heading toward an era of individualism (a counterculture revolution).

So, building out his theory, which isn’t going to be exact. I think now, in 2024, we’re hitting the height of taking “collectivism” too far, aka the “witch hunt phase,” and it’s astonishing that we’ve gotten to four (soon to be five) indictments against Trump. We’re also living through an extraordinary period of Us vs. Them, typical of a “witch hunt” phase, and why it feels like we’re on the brink of a Civil War or a revolution.

According to this theory, the next 20 years will be a time of individualism, like the 1960s-1980s. However, that will go too far in 2063, when the pendulum will start to shift in the other direction, back to collectivism.

I wish I were younger and could live long enough to see this play out. Alas, I’ll leave this here as a breadcrumb trail for younger people to find should they be curious about this moment we’re living through.

Hope that helps!

Here are some videos on the Fourth Turning worth a watch:

(This guy is a little annoying…but)