What I value most about the theory behind the Fourth Turning is its affirmative and hopeful message. Knowing a positive resolution is possible is a powerful antidote and the stuff that drives votes.
Interesting stuff but I am not sure there is a US left to cycle through it again. The previous cycles had a common culture in which a new synthesis could form as new issues came to the fore. Now there not only not a common culture but not even a common reality. Given that, the way to bet is dissolution or an authoritarian regime by the side that prevails, probably the Left. This is assuming the idiot ruling class doesn't stumble into nuclear war.
The pattern, if you follow the rise and fall of great societies, is an arc that has the classic peaks and valleys but the trend overall is decline and we are following it to a perfect “T”…
The sad truth is that it’s always the most impassioned people that win, even if that “passion” is based on self-hatred and nihilism, which is the CORE of the Left…
At the very least, the US as a republic is over. We may yet persist as an empire. To take Rome as an example with the Punic and Macedonian wars, they had turned into a Mediterranean empire from a Italian republic. The form of a republic persisted but the problems accumulated from the time of the Grachi. It was a time of repeated civil war. Still it managed to persist as an empire until 1453. Things move faster now.
"Individualism will be weaker and community will be stronger than most of us recall from circa-2000. Public trust will be stronger, institutions more effective, and national optimism higher. Yet the culture will be tamer, social conscience weaker, and pressure to conform heavier."
That sounds terrible to me. Glad I'm almost a senior citizen. I'd prefer a more decentralized culture where we are less able to impose our ideas on others.
AGREED. How does that sound palatable except to those who have no problem PRESSURING other people to do what THEY want. The idea of "public trust" and pressuring to conform seem to be at odds with one another in my way of thinking.
Sasha, I hope you don’t abandon the “Fourth Turning” concept / title. While controversial, the theory that historic trends (and generation types) recycle themselves every 80-100 years goes back thousands of years (probably longer): ancient Greeks, Chinese historians (Sima Qian c. 100BC), prominent Arabs in the Middle Ages (Ibn Khaldon), and even Spengler, somewhat, in the early 1900s. While not very scientific, the theory appears to be surprisingly predictive, in a localized way, and reflective of human nature.
Why do we as a people or a collective always have to make simple things complicated? How hard would a world where everyone understood a simple principle and applied it to their lives which in turn would put a end to all of the fighting that is going on all the time? A principle so simple it is only three words and could empty the law libraries of books by the ton. A principle so simple that the understanding of it would be universal and those who chose to deviate from this principle could be ostracized and become outcasts of civilization. Is your interest been stirred up? Are you wondering what this simple principle is that because of it's simplicity seems to be ignored and avoided for it's impossibility? Well here...this is the principle. Thanks for reading this far. DO NO HARM.
These things aren't dreamt up or guessed at, they are planned and executed. Incrementalism until a society is ripe for the 'Color Revolution'... funded and performed both outside forces and inside traitors to the Republic see an opportunity.
Exactly, but in the past, largely *within* national boundaries. Here's some evidence that it was not so neat:
We supposedly had the " 'We' Zenith of 1943", while (see the zigzag graph) a nadir in 1963...
Now, China was in the midst of a civil war in the 1940s (not exactly "We"), while it turned to Woke-like "McCarthyism" (with a vengeance!) in the Cultural Revolution of the late 1960s (thru mid-70s) - ironically, nearly coincident with the rise of the the U.S.' "Me"-oriented 1967 "Summer of Love" and 1970s' "the Me decade".
I think we might do better to study cycles of intelligent sociopathic cabals. Sure, "We" *has* been now converging internationally under forced globalism, but that is still independent cause, rather than some kind of universal human "feeling" that catches on.
'You will become what you worship.' If a person/society's highest goal is easy wealth and power, in the extreme circumstances, it will become full of narcissistic authoritarians. On an every day scale it looks like pathetic, hook-up transactional sex, having dogs instead of children, becoming an 'influencer' and unkindness for 'sport'. 'Lord of the Flies' and 'Animal Farm' aren't too far off.
Thanks for clarifying. When I heard the Fourth Turning was based on these 80 year cycles of change, I immediately thought about Steve Bannon and is affiliation with the theory. Made me rather skeptical, tbh. But like you I’ve learned more about Bannon over the past few years, and realized my interpretation of him was wrong, based on a false representation of him in the media (what else is new). He’s actually a smart and righteous guy, but most people have their minds made up about him (like I did prior) and won’t even take the time to understand his views.
Great summary and certainly food for thought. I think adding the impact of post-modernism might be helpful. The heart of the idea of this approach is a denial of truth, without which civilization is not possible. The elevation of power over truth is crushing and annihilates the individual and all value other than that seized by force. The message of the epic film, "The Triumph of the Will" , is very helpful in showing how this works in the world.
Sasha - Neil’s Fourth Turning has us at climax now (started in 2007 market crash). Analogous to the last Fourth Turning starting in 1929 (stock market crash) and taking 10 years to ripen into WW2. and 10 more years of war/aftermath until a First Turnjng golden age.
First Turnings are 20 year epochs where collectivism (“we”) becomes suffocating and inspires a Second Turning into individualism.
Meaning - we have another 5+ years of this Fourth Turning madness (the nasty part) and then 20 years of peaceful collective consensus till our counter-culture takes hold. We likely won’t see it (I’m nearly 60).
The counter-culture you reference is actually the opposing force of Fourth Turning warfare. We’re not about inner search or consciousness at all now. It’s pure combat on our defining values from which to reinvent our politics and institutional. The eternal struggle of leftist Marxist collectivism vs individualist classical liberalism and free markets.
Admittedly, I skimmed this long article and will go back and read it all. Did watch the overview video. What seems to be glaringly missing is any acknowledgement of the global cabal that’s been attempting to control all humans for a long long time and their successful influence over our societies.
Gotta add: Hillary Clinton a “hero”? I see her as a globalist war monger - definitely not a hero.
The Rockerfellers, Ford, and Bush dynasties (and more) financed Hitler.
Where is the complexity?
I’ll try to revisit this but it feels over simplified and too smug.
John Droz, on his "Critically Thinking About Select Societal Issues" Substack, offers a different perspective that none the less, dovetails nicely with what Sasha is putting forth...and in comments.
More so perhaps, in light of the massive influx of illegals under the Biden admin's disastrous border policies and 'Imperial' mandates. America was founded on individualism. Most of Europe also follows that mold, until recently.
I like to call myself an Unlicensed Non-certified historian. Instead of a History Nut. I view things through the lens of history.
1. This (Fourth Turning) is as good as any.
2. The problem is Sometimes Sh*t just happens. Someone just screws up.
Example: Archduke Ferdinand and his wife go to Sarajevo, to visit some injured policeman. On the way back his drive gets lost. The Driver pulls over to look at a map. He stops right in front of a Serbian assassin, who is himself lost after failing to kill The Archduke. I mean if you were to try and sell this as a script you'd be laughed out of the office. But that is what happened. 5 minutes one way or the other WWI doesn't happen. At least the way it did.
History is Full of examples like this. History is a guide, just don't forget 2 things 1. Chaos, sometimes Sh*t Happens. 2. (putting my Christian hat on) God is on his Throne and He has a Plan.
What I value most about the theory behind the Fourth Turning is its affirmative and hopeful message. Knowing a positive resolution is possible is a powerful antidote and the stuff that drives votes.
Interesting stuff but I am not sure there is a US left to cycle through it again. The previous cycles had a common culture in which a new synthesis could form as new issues came to the fore. Now there not only not a common culture but not even a common reality. Given that, the way to bet is dissolution or an authoritarian regime by the side that prevails, probably the Left. This is assuming the idiot ruling class doesn't stumble into nuclear war.
The pattern, if you follow the rise and fall of great societies, is an arc that has the classic peaks and valleys but the trend overall is decline and we are following it to a perfect “T”…
The sad truth is that it’s always the most impassioned people that win, even if that “passion” is based on self-hatred and nihilism, which is the CORE of the Left…
At the very least, the US as a republic is over. We may yet persist as an empire. To take Rome as an example with the Punic and Macedonian wars, they had turned into a Mediterranean empire from a Italian republic. The form of a republic persisted but the problems accumulated from the time of the Grachi. It was a time of repeated civil war. Still it managed to persist as an empire until 1453. Things move faster now.
"Individualism will be weaker and community will be stronger than most of us recall from circa-2000. Public trust will be stronger, institutions more effective, and national optimism higher. Yet the culture will be tamer, social conscience weaker, and pressure to conform heavier."
That sounds terrible to me. Glad I'm almost a senior citizen. I'd prefer a more decentralized culture where we are less able to impose our ideas on others.
AGREED. How does that sound palatable except to those who have no problem PRESSURING other people to do what THEY want. The idea of "public trust" and pressuring to conform seem to be at odds with one another in my way of thinking.
Sasha, I hope you don’t abandon the “Fourth Turning” concept / title. While controversial, the theory that historic trends (and generation types) recycle themselves every 80-100 years goes back thousands of years (probably longer): ancient Greeks, Chinese historians (Sima Qian c. 100BC), prominent Arabs in the Middle Ages (Ibn Khaldon), and even Spengler, somewhat, in the early 1900s. While not very scientific, the theory appears to be surprisingly predictive, in a localized way, and reflective of human nature.
Why do we as a people or a collective always have to make simple things complicated? How hard would a world where everyone understood a simple principle and applied it to their lives which in turn would put a end to all of the fighting that is going on all the time? A principle so simple it is only three words and could empty the law libraries of books by the ton. A principle so simple that the understanding of it would be universal and those who chose to deviate from this principle could be ostracized and become outcasts of civilization. Is your interest been stirred up? Are you wondering what this simple principle is that because of it's simplicity seems to be ignored and avoided for it's impossibility? Well here...this is the principle. Thanks for reading this far. DO NO HARM.
"A truly great society is one in which being unpopular can be safe"
Words to live by!
These things aren't dreamt up or guessed at, they are planned and executed. Incrementalism until a society is ripe for the 'Color Revolution'... funded and performed both outside forces and inside traitors to the Republic see an opportunity.
Exactly, but in the past, largely *within* national boundaries. Here's some evidence that it was not so neat:
We supposedly had the " 'We' Zenith of 1943", while (see the zigzag graph) a nadir in 1963...
Now, China was in the midst of a civil war in the 1940s (not exactly "We"), while it turned to Woke-like "McCarthyism" (with a vengeance!) in the Cultural Revolution of the late 1960s (thru mid-70s) - ironically, nearly coincident with the rise of the the U.S.' "Me"-oriented 1967 "Summer of Love" and 1970s' "the Me decade".
I think we might do better to study cycles of intelligent sociopathic cabals. Sure, "We" *has* been now converging internationally under forced globalism, but that is still independent cause, rather than some kind of universal human "feeling" that catches on.
McCarthy was right; the nation was riddled with Commies, and now they've overtaken every single institution we have.
'You will become what you worship.' If a person/society's highest goal is easy wealth and power, in the extreme circumstances, it will become full of narcissistic authoritarians. On an every day scale it looks like pathetic, hook-up transactional sex, having dogs instead of children, becoming an 'influencer' and unkindness for 'sport'. 'Lord of the Flies' and 'Animal Farm' aren't too far off.
Thanks for clarifying. When I heard the Fourth Turning was based on these 80 year cycles of change, I immediately thought about Steve Bannon and is affiliation with the theory. Made me rather skeptical, tbh. But like you I’ve learned more about Bannon over the past few years, and realized my interpretation of him was wrong, based on a false representation of him in the media (what else is new). He’s actually a smart and righteous guy, but most people have their minds made up about him (like I did prior) and won’t even take the time to understand his views.
Great summary and certainly food for thought. I think adding the impact of post-modernism might be helpful. The heart of the idea of this approach is a denial of truth, without which civilization is not possible. The elevation of power over truth is crushing and annihilates the individual and all value other than that seized by force. The message of the epic film, "The Triumph of the Will" , is very helpful in showing how this works in the world.
Sasha, I think you should keep the name the same. I never heard of "the fourth turning" until seeing your substack, and it's very interesting!
Well that was depressing ☹️
LOL Lily!
Sasha - Neil’s Fourth Turning has us at climax now (started in 2007 market crash). Analogous to the last Fourth Turning starting in 1929 (stock market crash) and taking 10 years to ripen into WW2. and 10 more years of war/aftermath until a First Turnjng golden age.
First Turnings are 20 year epochs where collectivism (“we”) becomes suffocating and inspires a Second Turning into individualism.
Meaning - we have another 5+ years of this Fourth Turning madness (the nasty part) and then 20 years of peaceful collective consensus till our counter-culture takes hold. We likely won’t see it (I’m nearly 60).
The counter-culture you reference is actually the opposing force of Fourth Turning warfare. We’re not about inner search or consciousness at all now. It’s pure combat on our defining values from which to reinvent our politics and institutional. The eternal struggle of leftist Marxist collectivism vs individualist classical liberalism and free markets.
Admittedly, I skimmed this long article and will go back and read it all. Did watch the overview video. What seems to be glaringly missing is any acknowledgement of the global cabal that’s been attempting to control all humans for a long long time and their successful influence over our societies.
Gotta add: Hillary Clinton a “hero”? I see her as a globalist war monger - definitely not a hero.
The Rockerfellers, Ford, and Bush dynasties (and more) financed Hitler.
Where is the complexity?
I’ll try to revisit this but it feels over simplified and too smug.
John Droz, on his "Critically Thinking About Select Societal Issues" Substack, offers a different perspective that none the less, dovetails nicely with what Sasha is putting forth...and in comments.
More so perhaps, in light of the massive influx of illegals under the Biden admin's disastrous border policies and 'Imperial' mandates. America was founded on individualism. Most of Europe also follows that mold, until recently.
Take a read, then re-read the above post.
https://criticallythinking.substack.com/p/a-different-perspective-on-whats?publication_id=1037422&post_id=144042742&isFreemail=true&r=l3nzx&triedRedirect=true
I like to call myself an Unlicensed Non-certified historian. Instead of a History Nut. I view things through the lens of history.
1. This (Fourth Turning) is as good as any.
2. The problem is Sometimes Sh*t just happens. Someone just screws up.
Example: Archduke Ferdinand and his wife go to Sarajevo, to visit some injured policeman. On the way back his drive gets lost. The Driver pulls over to look at a map. He stops right in front of a Serbian assassin, who is himself lost after failing to kill The Archduke. I mean if you were to try and sell this as a script you'd be laughed out of the office. But that is what happened. 5 minutes one way or the other WWI doesn't happen. At least the way it did.
History is Full of examples like this. History is a guide, just don't forget 2 things 1. Chaos, sometimes Sh*t Happens. 2. (putting my Christian hat on) God is on his Throne and He has a Plan.
Thank you for posting all this information, Sasha! I look forward to watching all the videos and reading everything carefully.